Well, it's been a long time, but it's good to be back. I have a lot to discuss including, but not limited to, a supplement to Dave's post previous post (link here). I'll start out with a list of things I'm going to talk about and go from there.
1) Updated season record predictions
2) Corwin Brown
3) Recruiting
4) Charlie Weis
5) Depth chart analysis
6) Closing remarks
Thanks to those of you who submitted comments on the record prediction post (link here), I appreciate the participation. Unfortunately, the guys over at Blue-Gray-Sky have a larger reading audience so there analysis was more comprehensive and utilized a larger population size. Just remember, you saw it here first. To supplement what I wrote earlier, here are the results. Interestingly enough, more people picked a 9-3 record than anything else. Winning eight games and losing four came in only slightly behind the most popular 9-3 choice. The disparity lies in the fact that people can't seem to agree on which games we are going to win beyond our final four. Particularly, Penn State and Boston College are on the fence.
2) Corwin Brown
I am quickly becoming a fan of Mr. Brown. He is an off-the-chart recruiter who really closes on kids with his hard work ethic, NFL pedigree, and the uncanny ability to relate to many of them due to his background. He's been in their position, he knows what it takes to succeed at the college and professional level despite pretty overwhelming odds, and he is articulate enough to communicate this to the recruits. If he is half as good at coaching as he is at recruiting we are in for a good showing and vastly improved defense. He really is saying all the right things and he teaches constantly. Couple that with Bill Lewis' constant instruction and the boys are going to be learning a lot, very quickly. The fact that Charlie wanted to hire him when he first came to ND speaks volumes of his confidence in him. I don't think it's a stretch to say that we got ourselves a steal. Even if he doesn't prove to be a great defensive signal-caller, it is safe to say the talent upgrade we are experiencing on the defensive side of the ball will pay dividends.
3) Recruiting
Speaking of recruiting I'm not sure you could have written a better story for this off-season. We had needs all along our defensive front seven, particularly at nose tackle. We also needed to bring some more speed and physicality into our secondary. We have exceeded expectations in pretty much all of those areas. Jamoris Slaughter and Robert Blanton are both tall, physical corners with very good speed. They are not afraid to hit and will offer a nice complement to the coverage skills Gary Gray, Raeshon McNeil, and Darrin Walls possess. Dan McCarthy is another safety in the Harrison Smith/David Bruton mold, very rangy, very instictive, and the ability to play centerfield. All three of those players have the capability to contribute early and often and will continue to solidify the tremendous depth building in our secondary. With these types of players our secondary will move from liability to strength.
Along the front seven we have faired even better. Steve Filer and Darius Fleming are exactly the type of talent we have missed out on in the past two years at the linebacker position. Both move extremely well laterally and are very physical at the point of attack. These guys are a homerun by the recruiting staff. Anthony McDonald is a little bit different type of player but I might like him even more. He plays with great leverage and his coach says he can't get him out of the film room.
Along the defensive line we have brought in, what I believe, to be our biggest pull in this class, Omar Hunter. Hunter is a man among boys. He is as quick as any defensive lineman in the country off the ball, he plays at around 300 lbs, and he has incredible closing speed down the line of scrimmage. He can go around, through, and over about anyone he lines up against. I think he will be a beast for us in the middle. Rounding out the defensive line are Sean Cynwar, Hafis Williams, Brandon Newman, and Ethan Johnson. Johnson may be the best defensive end in the country this year especially coming off the outside.
While not all of these guys are ranked number one at their respective positions I hardly put much stock in that. Since they have committed early they won't get as much evaluation or publicity and the list of who offered them scholarships is a veritable who's who of college football's elite programs. These kids are all talented. Weis and Brown identified them early, went after them, and closed on a lot of them. For many of these kids it came down to us and another school, e.g. USC, tOSU, Michigan, etc. and we won the battle.
While it is exciting to see the type of talent we are bringing in on the defensive side of the ball the talent on the other side isn't bad either. It's been no secret that Weis can recruit tight ends and with the success Fasano had and Carlson is having I don't look for things to change soon. This year we nabbed two excellent prospects.
Kyle Rudolph may be the most impressive player I've seen on film this year and is certainly the most impressive at his position in the last several years. He runs extremely precise, careful routes, he catches everything out in front of him with his hands, he is fast for his size, and he creates mismatches all over the field with his height (6'7"). He'll have to get bigger (225 lbs) to handle the blocking aspects of the position but splitting him out wide will be a nightmare for defenses. In addition to Kyle, Weis went back to his NFL days and received a committment from the son of a former player he coached. Joseph Fauria also committed to play tight end at ND, the blocker to Rudolph's pass catching abilities. At 6'8" 270 lbs and with excellent agility, Fauria has the ability to become one heck of a goal line tight end. Both of these guys are an offensive coordinator and quarterback's dream in the red zone. Take the snap, one step, throw it up and let them go get it.
Throwing to these two fine tight ends may fall into the hands of one of our current quarterbacks on the roster. However, if they can't cut it we picked up yet another excellent quarterback prospect from California, right out from under USC's nose. Dayne Crist will come in more physically prepared than possibly any quarterback we have on the roster. He has the height, build, and arm strength to be an excellent college quarterback. His mobility is also very, very good. In the film I saw of him he may even be better throwing on the run than out of the pocket where he is still very good. I think this is a huge pickup for us and will further the tremendous amount of talent we already have at that position.
We have also received committments from many fine offensive lineman. While most of them I view as project players that will need some time to build strength and stamina, they will all further the excellent depth we are creating at that position. The committ of wide receiver John Goodman gives us yet another receiver in the Samardzija mold (Robby Parris being the other). He averaged a staggering 45 plus yards per kickoff return last year indicating the ability to be a play-maker after he gets the ball into his hands.
If we get another wide receiver (Michael Floyd), another good offensive lineman (Trevor Robinson), and a running back (Cyrus Gray) I think this class will turn from homerun to grand slam in a hurry.
4) Charlie Weis
I'd have to say that this fall camp has been very intriguing to me. Weis has been playing games with the media and loving every second of it. He always seems to have this "I know something you don't know" grin on his face leading me to believe he's either a) overly confident/arrogant or b) surprisingly pleased with the offensive progress of his team. For the record, I do think he has purposely mislead people about the QB race, I don't think Clausen is out of it, I think he knows exactly who is going to start, and I think he is handling things very well with respect to the competition and media attention. None of these guys can say they didn't have their shot. That said, I am concerned that one quarterback isn't getting the majority of the reps to develop timing and cohesion with the receivers. We may be a play-action team this year but that doesn't mean our quarterbacks and receivers don't need to work together.
Weis has spoken on multiple occasions about how our depth is improving across the board, how it has brought more competition, and how he isn't afraid to play a lot of people. This can only be good for us going forward. He has specifically singled out Travis Thomas for his leadership, James Aldridge for his play post-injury, Armando Allen's speed, George West and David Grime's play, and the physical presence of Toryan Smith.
If you had asked me about two weeks ago what I thought we were going to look like as an offensive football team this year I would have been able to tell you in a heartbeat. We will play 8-9 offensive lineman, run the ball 45-50 times a game with three backs, play-action the hell out of people in unpredictable situations, become a perfectionist offense in the screen game, control the clock, keep the score close, keep the defense fresh, and play to stamina so that in the end of the game 3 and 4 yard runs turn into 8 and 9 yard runs. It was this logic that had me picking Sharpley as the starter. He can run the team and he won't get you beat with stupid mistakes. The thing is, he won't win a game in the final minutes for you either.
All my logic went out the window when Weis started talking about how he needed a quarterback that could win games. Essentially, he said that with a young team, if you play it safe, you're only going to win the ones you're supposed to win. He said he needs more of a playmaker, a guy who can do some things to help you win. While I don't disagree with this, it sort of surprised me given the fact that we cannot turn the ball over and beat many of the first eight teams on our schedule this year. However, if this is his approach to the sitaution I think he will go with Demetrius or some combination of Demetrius/Sharpley or Demetrius/Clausen.
5) Depth Chart Analysis
In the form of Dave's post last week (link here) I thought I would do a little rundown of our depth chart and what I've seen through fall camp. I'll break it out by position like he did working with the offense first.
Quarterbacks: I'd like to say I knew who was going to start but Weis has been keeping things so close I really have no idea. Furthermore, any "leak" from practice should be disregarded as a blatant rumor because the odds are Weis let it get out himself as a sort of diversion tactic. He has been a master strategist of this whole situation such that Tenuta et al will have some serious preparation work on their hands. The reality of the situation is that it looks like we will be a run heavy team that utilizes the play-action passing game. Something tells me, however, that he has a few trick plays up his sleeves.
As for the "Clausen is injured" situation, I wouldn't put much weight in it. Is he back to 100% right now, perhaps not, but he will be. Weis is arrogant but he isn't stupid. He wouldn't have Jimmy out there throwing if it meant he was going to be injured or that his healing would be slowed. I fully believe he could start in the Georgia Tech game if he is Weis' selection. The story is still the same on all of the quarterbacks. Jimmy is a picture in consistency, Sharpley has the best grasp of the offense, and Demetrius is a "wow, look at that" and "what the hell was he thinking" quarterback all wrapped into one.
What worries me a bit more is how everything will play out after a starter(s) is named. If one quarterback establishes himself as a very capable candidate to be the starter both now and in the future will we see another transfer? Additionally, if one quarterback plays but doesn't prove to be capable of being the play-maker Weis covets will he keep the competition open throughout the season and into next year? Personally I don't want to see anyone transfer but I think using both Jones and Clausen is about the only way that will happen. I can see Sharpley going back to concentrating on baseball, and the split in time enough to keep Jones and Clausen around. But in this day and age of immediate playing time or transfer, it's tough to tell.
Running backs: This is probably the position that has me the most excited. We have talent in the form of power, vision, speed, and depth. We have five running backs that can play such that our primary problem will be trying to give them all carries. And believe you me, it's a good problem to have. Let's start with the undisputed leader of the group, Travis Thomas. I don't know about you, but when I hear the name Travis Thomas I think about the bone crushing touchdown run he had where he gave Justin King a piece of his mind. It is exactly that type of determined run that we will need this year in third and short situations. Thomas is a downhill runner who cuts at full speed and is very physical. Junior Jabbie is of the same mold, albeit slightly more shifty. The freshman Robert Hughes rounds out thise physical style of back. He has impressed me a great deal with his agility. At 235 lbs he looks awfully nimble. I won't say Jerome Bettis-like yet, but he has the makings of a great inside runner. He simply destroys the gauntlet machine.
Next we have James Aldridge who seems to finally have come back from his injury. At 100% he has made some cuts that have left me nearly speechless. He definitely has that second gear you look for a running back. While he isn't a threat to score on any play, he can get to the outside and make you pay with his speed. The final tailback in the discussion is the one getting all the attention. Armando Allen is, as they say, is fast. He is the game breaker we haven't had since Tim Brown, Rocket Ismail, and Ricky Watters. Any time he touches the ball he is a threat to score. He doesn't have good speed, he has great speed. And for a guy at 185 lbs, he runs with quite a bit of power. Get him out in the open on a draw, screen, or toss play and just watch him work. The only drawback I can see to him is that he won't be able to handle a ton of pounding at such a (relatively) low weight. This will likely mean he splits carries for the duration of his career but Reggie Bush wasn't much bigger during his college tenure (and no I'm not comparing Allen's abilities to Bush's). All five of the backs seem to have very soft hands leading me to believe we may not miss Darius in our passing game as much as I thought.
Since we are talking about speed I'd like to echo a sentiment that I have held for a long time and Weis affirmed during a recent press conference. I have maintained that there are very few football players that run the 40 faster than 4.5 seconds. The guys who do are a breed of their own but most stats are exaggerated. This is especially true at the high school level. To give you a reference point, Darius Walker was listed as a 4.4 guy coming out of high school, and I think we all know that isn't the case. It's like Weis said (paraphrased), "Those guys in high school running the 4.3's are running them with broken stop watches. I coached in that other league for fifteen years and I only knew a handful of guys who ran a 4.4 or better. If you run a 4.5 you're pretty fast, if you run lower than that you're exceptionally quick."
At the fullback position I think we will see a lot of Luke Schmidt this year. I say this based on two primary reasons. First and foremost his blocking has improved tremendously. He has gotten stronger and more physical. He also breaks down much better with a wider stance when he blocks. The second reason I think we'll see him is his ability to create mismatches catching the ball out of the backfield. Even though he's added weight he's still extremely agile for his size. He can really be a weapon out of the backfield for us and a good complement to a healthy Schwapp who is as tough of a blocker and inside ball carrier as there is.
Offensive line: I haven't paid a ton of attention to this position in the film I've watched of practice. What I can say is that we have a lot of athletic big men at this position. In addition to Sam Young and John Sullivan who are very talented at their respective positions, we have a ton of depth and capable players in Turkovich, Duncan, Carufel, Wenger, and Bemenderfer. Even the young guys Dever and Romine very much look the part. I'd say this position is going to be a real strength for us this year when they get some experience and gel.
Wide receiver: I have watched more film of the wide receivers than any other position on our team. I am very curious as to how they will play this year as I think they will go a long way in determining our success. To start, David Grimes is catching everything near him and even going up for some balls that I didn't think he would be able to get as he is on the shorter side. I think he is going to be a very solid receiver for us mostly because he has tremendous quickness and route running ability. I'm still not convinced he is a "go-to" type of guy but if the rest of the receiving corps plays at a consistently high level he doesn't need to be.
George West looks like he has really bulked up. Having said that, I don't think he's lost a step as some people are reporting. He looks very fluid and quick to me, so much so that I think he would be an excellent candidate to take over Samardzija's responsibilities on the quick arrow routes Weis likes to run. In the open field West will make people miss and get some extra yards. He doesn't have great straight-line speed but he definitely has very good straight line speed.
After Grimes and West there is a definitive drop off in talent. It isn't that the athletic ability isn't there, it is just largely raw and unpolished. This is mostly true of Tate and Kamara but also somewhat true of Gallup. Although I admit the route running of Gallup and Parris has improved, they still aren't quite to where Grimes and West are. If I had to put money down now I'd say Parris is the number three guy. D.J. Hord looks to really be getting back "into the groove." He has got his strength back and hasn't missed much of a beat in terms of speed. His improvement in catching the ball could push him right up there with Parris competing for the third wide receiver spot.
This is another position (like the secondary) where depth has really improved the play across the board. With the exception of Richard Jackson (who seems to be a lost cause) all of the receivers are playing much better than at this point last year. The young talent of Kamara and Tate has really forced better play from the guys with more experience. Tate is as quick as anyone on the team and nearly as fast as Allen. He is beginning to look more and more comfortable in his route running and could really develop into a weapon in the open field for us. I don't look for him to become a huge factor in the passing game this year but it might be difficult to keep him off the field in the return game.
The brightest spot I can see in the receiving corps has to be Duval Kamara. In my opinion the guy will play as much as he wants as soon as he learns the playbook. He has the size, strength, and speed to be a big-time receiver. Right now he looks like Stovall did his senior year but I think Kamara is quite a bit faster and a better route runner. He catches everything out in front of him, and he has incredibly large hands. I can't see him not being on the field a lot by the season's end.
Tight end: What isn't to like about our tight ends? Ragone looks quicker than some of the running backs in agility drills. I've never seen someone as agile as Yeatman weighing 260 lbs. Reuland is coming along quite nicely in all the facets of his game and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a better tight end in the country this year than John Carlson. I'd look to see a lot of multiple tight end sets not only because they are some of the better players on the field, but also because Weis seems to be a huge fan of using timed motion trap plays with them. We ran it a handful of times with Walker but with more physical, downhill type of runners we will likely look to exploit our talent by creating lanes with angle blocking schemes rather than zone stretch plays. Having said that, giving Allen the ball and letting him stretch the sideline isn't a bad option either.
Nose tackle: I'd say this is our weakest position of any on the field. I'd also say this position will be a huge factor in winning games for us. If teams can effectively run the ball against us we won't be able to win. Not many of the teams we face will naturally try and pound it out (save possibly Michigan) but they may switch to that strategy given our lack of size in the front three. Pat Kuntz has his weight up to about 280 lbs and plays with a high motor but I still don't think he can handle the duties. Ian Williams looks the part with arms as big as my thighs but he's young, raw, and unpolished. I think they'll split time but we cannot afford an injury at this position.
Defensive end: Laws is a mainstay at one end but the other position isn't set in stone. To me, it seems like it's Justin Brown's to lose. He is lightning quick off the ball and can really blow up plays. My concern is that he plays too wrecklessly and will get into trouble being out of position. He also isn't the ideal size (261 lbs) for a defensive end in the 3-4. I'd look for whoever plays at this other end position to get a lot of runs his way. Teams will naturally run away from Laws.
Inside linebacker: I think this will be a strength for our team this year. Scott Smith has come on strong lately as has Brockington. Brockington looks more agile than about any of the linebackers and seems to have improved his speed in the off-season. Crum looks 15-20 lbs heavier but hasn't lost his mobility. He is playing lights out right now. I think Toryan Smith will see the field at some point. He has to, he destroys people when he hits them. The guy is strong as an ox, plays with incredible leaverage, and has really come on strong as of late. It's going to be tough to keep him on the bench.
Outside linebacker: John Ryan and Anthony Vernaglia seem to have this position locked up. I worry about Ryan's lateral movement but he is very strong at the point of attack. Vernaglia has improved 100% over the past year. It's good to see him taking advantage of the opportunity the 3-4 has provided him. He is a perfect fit for it athletically. All he needed was to improve his physical play at the point of attack, which he has done. I think we'll see Maurice Richardson playng too. He's just too solid as an outside pass rush presence. While it seems that he's either in Weis' doghouse or injured (he's been practicing with the third team) I can't see him not getting some playing time on obvious passing downs.
The wildcards in this mix are the freshmen Brian Smith and Kerry Neal. Everyone knows about Neal, he's a freakish athlete in terms of size and speed. The big surprise (to me at least) has been the play of Brian Smith. He has really, really put on a show in practice. He came in heavier than anticipated but has great speed for his size. When we first recruited him I didn't think he would be able to play on the outside (he had a rather thin frame), but I was poorly mistaken. He has bulked up and could contribute this year at the outside linebacker position.
Cornerback: I think this position will turn into a strength for us this year. I don't say that because Wooden or Lambert will play that much better. I say that because I think we will have a simple scheme with a greater pass rush on the outside. That spells out good things for guys who were left alone far too often for far too long the past two years. The talented youth at this position is also impresssive. It looks like Walls and McNeil have both put on some weight and are playing more physical. I've seen it written in many places (but it's so true), the fact that Leo Ferrine was a nickel back two years ago and is playing with the third team now speaks volumes about the talent and depth we have at this position.
Safety: Obviously we have Zbikowski back. He will certainly be a strength of our defense as he has slimmed down and determined to play better this year. Look for Corwin to give him less run responsibility so he isn't the victim of play-action as often. I think Bruton will replace Duke quite well. He is a very good athlete with long arms and tons of range. His change of direction isn't great but we shouldn't be leaving him out on an island in man coverage anyway. Since he has put on more weight and gotten stronger I think he will really be a solid player for us in the years to come.
Another freshman I've been very pleasantly surprised about is Harrison Smith. The kid can flat out run. I mean he can fly. I don't know if he looks fast because he plays so committed to his insticts or if he really is that fast but he is as impressive of an athlete to watch as there is in our secondary. It will be difficult to keep him off the field in a year's time.
6) Closing Remarks
In closing I'd like to caution everyone to not measure the success of this season in wins and losses. How we play, the effort, intensity, hustle, etc. and how close the games are will go a long way to determining how good of a team we have both now and in the future. The talent is there, it's just young, raw, and inexperienced. That said, I don't think an eight win season is out of the question. If we get nine wins I think it has to be the result of vastly improved defensive play. Look for more updates to the blog as the background will be going up soon along with the countdown spreadsheet and some words about the updated ESP.
