Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. San Diego State

The Irish looked awful at times on Saturday, failing to put a significantly less talented team away in the first half. Despite facing an opponent partially crippled by NCAA sanctions and injuries, the Irish needed a solid fourth quarter effort to win.

A look at the box score and comparison to the woeful 2007 team leads to some interesting conclusions.

The three most important statistical corollaries to winning football games are turnover margin, red zone efficiency, and third down conversion percentage. The Irish failed miserably in each, committing four turnovers (two of which were virtually in the San Diego State end zone), scoring only once in five red zone tries, and only converting on a quarter of its third down attempts.

Performing poorly in one of these three areas is typically indicative of a rough outing, struggling in all three spells disaster more often than not.

Offense

Notre Dame averaged five yards per play running and throwing the ball at an even split, with 34 attempts on the ground and through the air for 342 total yards. This produced a fairly even time of possession result, with the Irish holding a slight edge (1:44).

The production of the running game was not as good as that of the passing game as Notre Dame yielded 30.7 percent of its yards on the ground to 69.3 percent in the air. The first downs also support this trend with 12 coming via passes and only four from running the football. San Diego State also gifted the Irish four first downs from penalties.

The Irish netted only 105 rushing yards on 34 attempts for a paltry 3.1 yard per carry average. That is poor production especially considering there were no sacks to lower the average. Armando Allen and Robert Hughes split the carries with 17 and 16 respectively. Both averaged nearly 3.5 yards per carry, down from 4 and 5.5 respectively the previous year. Despite the running game being a point of emphasis in the off-season it appears there has been little improvement from 2007.

The passing game, however, has improved. Notre Dame was sacked 58 times in 389 attempts last year, or roughly once every 6.7 attempts. Through 34 attempts against San Diego State the Irish didn’t surrender a single sack, even though no improvement from 2007 would have suggested five. Granted, the opponent was San Diego State, but Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford all recorded sacks in 2007 against the Irish.

Additionally, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen completed 61.8 percent of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt and 11.3 yards per completion compared to 56.3 percent, 5.1, and 9.1 in 2007. The improvement in these areas indicates increased efficiency and the capability to go down the field with the ball, something better pass protection against the Aztecs allowed.

Clausen’s favorite targets were David Grimes and Golden Tate. Grimes caught 5 balls for 35 yards and a touchdown while Tate provided the deep threat with 6 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

Defense

On paper the defense played pretty well. Notre Dame held San Diego State to 345 yards on 74 plays (4.7 yard per play average) despite the Aztecs attempting 59 passes and throwing the ball on just under 80% of their offensive plays.

The Irish secondary limited San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley to less than a 50 percent completion percentage and only 4.6 yards per attempt. Most of the passes were underneath as the Aztecs netted only 9.4 yards per completion. Additionally, the Irish defense held San Diego State to 31.3 percent conversion percentage on third down.

The defensive production against the passing game improved over last season when the Irish allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 52.6 percent of their passes at 5.6 yards per attempt and 10.7 yards per completion.

Notre Dame gave up 71 yards on 15 attempts on the ground. That’s good for a 4.7 yard average but increases to 5.6 yards per attempt if the lone sack is removed. This is up from an already large 4.3 yard per attempt value form 2007, but may be a little misleading given the fact that San Diego State didn’t try to establish the running game with any consistency.

The defense didn’t hit home on as many blitzes as anticipated. Despite rushing the passer frequently Notre Dame only recorded one sack for a loss of seven yards. However, eight throws were batted down and many other times Lindley had to alter his throwing motion due to onrushing Irish defenders.

Safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton led the way with 14 and 7 tackles, respectively, and outside linebacker/defensive end Kerry Neal recorded the only Irish interception on a screen pass.

Special Teams

Although the Irish blotched one field goal hold and missed a second from 47 yards, the special teams actually performed pretty well.

In the return game Notre Dame averaged 13.7 yards per punt return while surrendering only 1.7 to San Diego State. The net punting average for Notre Dame was just under 39 yards, while the Aztecs only netted 25.7 yards per punt. Obviously the punt return blocking and coverage was much better for the Irish.

Similarly, the Irish gained 24.7 yards per kickoff return and gave up only 12.5 to the Aztecs. These return averages translated into 48 yards netted per kickoff for Notre Dame and only 39.3 for San Diego State.

That’s good for a 20 yard difference in field position as the average starting field position for Notre Dame was their own 43 while San Diego State averaged starting at their own 23. This is a substantial difference, on average requiring two fewer first downs for Notre Dame to score.

These values are nearly all improved over the results of 2007.

Summary

It is only one game against a weak opponent, but statistically comparing the Irish vs. San Diego State on offense, defense, and special teams suggests improvement in all areas of the game except rushing offense and (potentially) rushing defense.

It was turnovers, poor execution in the red zone, and poor execution on third down that led to such a close game.