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Monday, September 15, 2008

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Despite surrendering roughly 50 percent more yards to the Wolverines, the Fighting Irish came out on top 35-17. The tale of the game was six Wolverine turnovers, largely the result of carelessness and poor weather conditions. All in all Notre Dame produced 28 points off these Michigan miscues.

But credit should be given to the Irish as they made Michigan pay dearly converting the first two Michigan fumbles into touchdowns that gave Notre Dame a 14-0 lead only four minutes into the game. After a Michigan drive stalled in Irish territory quarterback, Jimmy Clausen wasted no time and connected with Golden Tate for a 48 yard strike. This gave the Irish a 21-0 lead with 4:51 left in the first quarter.

Michigan was never able to battle back.


Offense

The Notre Dame offense improved over last week
in red zone efficiency and turnovers. The Irish converted three of four red zone appearances into touchdowns and reduced the number of turnovers by two. Despite converting only 25 percent of their third down attempts for the second straight week, these two areas show good improvement.

The Irish offense averaged 4.7 yards per play running the ball 34 times while attempting only 21 passes for a 61.8/38.2 percent run/pass split. Total offense was down from 342 yards in week one to 260 yards. However, the total yardage in the game was misleading as Notre Dame faced a short field many times in the first half and spent much of the second half killing the clock.

The Irish lost the time of possession game by more than four minutes. The first half, in particular, saw the Wolverines grab more than a nine minute advantage before Notre Dame went to the ground in the second half attempting to shorten the game. With a thin defense and suspect front four, not controlling the clock in the future could be problematic for the Irish.

Notre Dame ran the ball for 113 yards. That translates to 3.3 yards per rush, slightly up from their 3.1 yards per carry output against San Diego State. The Irish gained only five first downs on the ground but did manage to score twice running the football.

This leads one to believe the rushing performance was poor. That may not have been the case. Michigan entered the game yielding fewer than one yard per carry. Additionally, many of the Irish rushing attempts occurred in the second half when Michigan knew Notre Dame was going to run in order to run the clock.


Robert Hughes led the way on the ground, taking 19 carries for 79 yards and two touchdowns. At 4.2 yards per carry, Hughes definitely looked like the workhorse back preseason prognosticators forecasted.

The Irish added only four more first downs through the air, but two touchdown passes of more than ten yards and a Golden Tate 60 yard slant route certainly lowered that number.

Clausen completed less than 50 percent of his throws, down from a much more efficient game against the Aztecs
. His yards per attempt stayed steady at seven but his yards per completion increased from 11.3 to 14.7. Compare that to 9.1 yards per completion from 2007 and it is evident that the Irish are much more adept at the vertical passing game. Cutting down on interceptions would be advised as Clausen is averaging one per 13.8 passing attempts.

Once again, the Irish protected Clausen. Michigan entered the game second in the nation in getting to the quarterback, but the Irish did not surrender a single sack. This is week two of a welcomed new trend for the Irish.


Tate had a monster day hauling in passes from Clausen. To date Tate has caught ten balls for 220 yards and two touchdowns. That 22 yard per reception average is certainly indicative of his ability to stretch the field.

Finally, all five of the Irish touchdowns-even Brian Smith’s fumble return-were accounted for by sophomores. That bodes very well for the future, and for Weis’ recruiting efforts.


Defense

The defense looked suspect at times, particularly in the first half. As mentioned above, Michigan owned a more than nine minute edge in first half time of possession. This was evident in poor tackling and a lack of effort on many plays.

The credit, however, goes to the defensive coaching staff as the Irish adjusted well at halftime. After allowing Michigan running back Sam McGuffie to gash his way to more than 80 first half yards, the Irish defense stiffened, holding the Wolverines to only 2.5 yards per carry in the second half. Additionally, Notre Dame gave up zero second half points.


Notre Dame surrendered 5.5 yards per play to Michigan, with 8.2 yards per play coming through the air. That’s up from only 5.6 yards per pass attempt in week one. Michigan was able to get 12.1 yards per completion as well. That isn’t as productive as the Irish passing attack, but it is significantly higher than the 10.7 yards the Irish gave up to San Diego State.

In terms of sacks, the Irish blitzing attack was relatively inefficient (again). Despite applying pressure for much of the day Notre Dame failed to record a single sack. This can expose the secondary and exemplify the high risk defense the Notre Dame scheme dictates.

Once again, the Irish safeties led the way with David Bruton notching 15 tackles and Kyle McCarthy getting ten. Throw a forced fumble and interception in for Bruton, and the senior play-maker is starting to show his true colors.


Special Teams

Special teams continue to be a bright spot for the Irish, at least compared to 2007. For the second straight week Notre Dame had more than a 15 yard advantage in field possession.

The Irish punt and kickoff coverage units held the Wolverines to negative punt return yards and only 11.4 yards per kickoff return. Gunners Bruton and Mike Anello are excellent.

Notre Dame averaged 51.5 net yards per kickoff compared to Michigan’s 43.8. However, the Wolverines got the better of the Irish in the punting game with 49.8 yards netted per punt compared to 44.2 for the Irish.

But the real bright spot came in the form of Anello’s fumble recovery on Michigan’s second kickoff return. Anello was the first Irish special teams player down the field and proved, once again, that heart matters.


Summary

Notre Dame really put this game away early in the first half by capitalizing on two Michigan turnovers. The total yard statistics favor the Wolverines but the Irish were really just trying to run the clock leading with inclement weather. To be certain, it was not a dominating effort, but red zone efficiency and turnover margin ultimately led to victory.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Game Recap

After needing fourth quarter heroics to beat a significantly less talented San Diego State squad, Notre Dame came out and put the Michigan Wolverines away early. The Irish played a more complete game than they did in week one, capitalizing on six Michigan turnovers en route to a 35-17 victory.

Forget the specifics, the intangibles, the Michigan turnovers. There is no reason to hash out who played well and who didn’t. This was a statement game, not a statement win. It was a statement that the program is back moving in the right direction. And the Irish made their statement in convincing fashion. They came out swinging, went for the jugular early and often, and rode the clock (and wet weather) to victory.

Despite having a down year, Michigan is still Michigan. They have ample talent (particularly on the defensive side of the ball), a non-conventional offense that is difficult to defend, and they look to be improving. But the Irish came away with a confidence building victory over their rival opponent that had taken them behind the wood shed the past two seasons.

To be certain, Michigan lost the game as much as Notre Dame won it. Committing six turnovers is nearly impossible to overcome. But that doesn’t take away from the magnitude of what the Notre Dame players have accomplished since a deplorable 2007 season.

Facing an off-season of adversity, the Irish look like they have turned the corner. There is discernable improvement everywhere on the team starting with the most maligned unit of 2007, the offensive line. The Irish have established a down-field passing attack, are beginning to control the line of scrimmage, have dramatically improved special teams play, and have found a more than capable signal caller in quarterback Jimmy Clausen.

The recruiting of head coach Charlie Weis is also starting to show. The talent along the offensive line is growing to reach its potential and the players are gelling as a unit. The Irish have three legitimate running backs, several wide receivers with play making potential, and the quarterback to get them the ball.

The secondary is fast, athletic, and has excellent coverage skills. The outside pass rush is effective, and the linebacking corps has improved dramatically from last season. Unfortunately, the defensive line is still a liability, even with solid minutes from some of the younger players.

But the defensive line is only the tip of the iceberg. There is no question that the Irish must improve to extend their win streak. Tackling was suspect Saturday, the running game hasn’t been consistently effective, and Clausen et. al. must continue to minimize turnovers. Failure to control the clock and win time of possession in the future could come back to haunt an already thin defense.

That thin defense is trying to execute a high risk, high reward scheme. Blitzing frequently to apply pressure to the quarterback leaves the secondary vulnerable to big plays. Through two games Notre Dame has only generated a single sack. If the Irish aren’t getting home on many blitzes it seems unjustified to continue risking the big play with little promise of a reward.

Additionally, an Irish defense with ideal personnel for the spread didn’t stop a Michigan offense still struggling to execute. The Irish also continue to exhibit a baffling lack of commitment to the running game and playcalling that is frequently too cute. The former, coupled with the latter, will allow more disciplined opponents with fewer turnovers to come away with a win.

But the fact that the team has come so far in only twelve months shows the arrow is pointing in the right direction. Execution is inconsistent (particularly on third down), but the Irish are young and there are far more positives than negatives to glean from Saturday’s performance. Namely, red zone efficiency and turnover margin improved from week one and are the two biggest reasons for the win.

Notre Dame is by no means an elite team, but there is definitely progress being made and the credit has to go to the head man. In the face of mounting criticism Weis stuck to his plan, believed in his philosophy, and implemented off-season changes that have certainly paid dividends.

On top of all that, he showed a commitment to the program and to his players Saturday, remaining on the sideline after a serious injury and watching the team get their first meaningful win in over a year.

For a Notre Dame squad that lacked fun for most of the 2007 season, they seem to have exorcized the demons. The Irish players certainly appeared to be having a good time on Saturday. Enjoy it boys. Enjoy it and get back to work. The season has just begun and improvement is still needed. Michigan State is next, and it will take a better performance to come away with a win.