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Monday, October 06, 2008

2008 Elite Selection Playoff Initial Release

It's that time of year again. That's right, it's week six of the 2008 college football season, time for the release of the Elite Selection Playoff. For those new to this college football ranking system a detailed explanation can be found here.

Elite Selection Playoff

First out of the gate are the Oklahoma Sooners, largely due to the pollsters (deserved) love affair with this team. The Crimson Tide trail by less than two-hundredths of a point and sit atop the AV computer ranking.


Strength of Schedule

The most heavily weighted part of the AV computer ranking is the strength of schedule. To date, the Washington Huskies have face the toughest schedule followed closely by Nebraska. It is important to keep in mind that the AV strength of schedule is based only on games played through week six, i.e. it does not include every opponent on a team's schedule until the final week of the season.



Margin of Victory

Penn State and Oklahoma have been racking up huge victories over their opponents coming in at one and two respectively in margin of victory.


AV Computer Ranking

Finally, the AV computer ranking (only the top 50 are shown) is led by Alabama followed by Vanderbilt, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. For the Irish faithful, Notre Dame makes their debut at number 34. Their 4-1 record is trumped by the 73 ranked strength of schedule.

Last year Notre Dame's schedule ranked sixth in the country. At the onset of this season it was estimated that the Irish would play the 60th toughest strength of schedule. So far this seems to be very plausible.

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Stanford

It was really a tale of two sides for the Irish Saturday. While Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal 430 (6.4 yards per play) to 343 (5.3 yards per play) yards, the Irish failed to perform well in several of the most important statistical categories.

The usually effective Irish coverage units had mishaps and the return teams did little to help generate field position.

The Irish scored at a 50 percent clip when in the red zone but allowed Stanford to convert all three red zone appearances into touchdowns.

Despite holding Stanford to only 22.2 percent on third down, the Irish only converted 28.6 percent of their own attempts. Additionally, Stanford didn’t need three tries to pick up a first down for much of the day.

This game was certainly won in the turnover battle as Cardinal quarterback Tavita Pritchard threw three early interceptions (Stanford also had a meaningless fumble on the final play of the game). But the Irish protected the ball for the second straight week and capitalized on Pritchard's mistakes. After giving up nine turnovers in their first three games, Notre Dame has surrendered zero in their last two.

Offense

It all starts under center for the Irish as quarterback Jimmy Clausen had his second straight career game. With offensive coordinator Mike Haywood calling passes on about 60 percent of the snaps, Notre Dame seems determined to put the game in Clausen’s hands. Over the last two contests, against porous secondaries, the plan has worked well.

Despite this pass happy approach Notre Dame has even managed to control the ball the past two games, albeit only in the second half. Against Purdue the Irish managed a better than ten minute advantage in ball control. Against Stanford the time of possession advantage dwindled, but Notre Dame still managed to hold a six minute edge.

Clausen threw to seven different targets for 347 yards and three touchdowns, completing 72.5 percent of his passes. The Irish signal-caller turn in an efficient, high-powered, and productive day. Over the past two games Clausen has completed better than 65 percent of his passes for 622 yards and six touchdowns. He has also not thrown an interception through more than eight quarters of action.

For the game Clausen averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 12 yards per completion. For the year he is at 7.3 and 12 yards respectively. Both numbers are dramatically up from 2007. Clausen’s favorite targets Saturday were Michael Floyd, David Grimes, Kyle Rudolph, and Armando Allen, completing at least five passes to each.

Floyd caught five balls for 115 yards (23 yard per reception average) and a touchdown. On the year Floyd is averaging better than 66 yards per game and 15.9 yards per reception. Coupled with Golden Tate’s 79.4 yards per game and 17.3 yards per reception, Notre Dame packs a powerful one-two punch on the outside.

Grimes caught seven passes for 60 yards (8.6 yard per reception average) and Rudolph had a career day hauling in five balls for 70 yards (14 yard per reception average) and a touchdown. Finally, Allen became Clausen’s safety valve, catching seven passes for 66 yards (9.4 yard per reception average). Allen even managed to turn one short route into a touchdown.

With five different Irish players recording over ten receptions on the year, Notre Dame is starting to force defenses to cover the entire field.

The excellent pass protection continued for the Irish against the Cardinal. For the second straight week Notre Dame surrendered only a single sack. For the year the Irish are averaging one sack per game, or one per 34.2 pass attempts. That’s a phenomenal improvement from last year when Notre Dame gave up 4.8 sacks per game, or one per 6.7 pass attempts.

Although not as big-play potent as last week, Notre Dame still turned in seven big plays for 200 yards (28.6 yard per play average). For those out there keeping count, less than 10 percent of the Irish plays went for nearly half of the total offense against Stanford.

However, the Notre Dame offense also moved the ball more consistently than they had since the San Diego State game averaging 3.8 yards per play not counting the seven big plays.

Unfortunately, that is where the good ends and the bad (or really bad) begins.

Notre Dame continues to struggle getting into manageable third down situations. On the day the Irish offense faced third and five or more yards greater than 85 percent of the time. On the year the Irish suffer this fate at a better than 77 percent rate.

This is undoubtedly linked to Notre Dame’s poor third down efficiency. Against Stanford the Irish converted fewer than 30 percent of their third downs. On the year they haven’t fared much better, successfully gaining a first down on only 33.8 percent of their tries.

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. After a break-out performance against Purdue, the Irish rushing attack reverted back to its dormant ways.

On the day Notre Dame recorded only 83 yards rushing on 27 attempts for a paltry 3.1 yard per carry average. Taking out the yards from the single sack, the rushing average peaks to 3.7 yards per carry. However, 23 yards came from a fake punt, bringing the "true" average back down to less than three.

There is no excuse for such an inept running game and in a close game (e.g. Michigan State) this will continue to haunt the Irish.

Defense

The defense played well in some facets of the game and not in others.

Unable to adjust to Stanford’s unbalanced offensive line early in the game, the Irish surrendered 161 yards on 37 carries for a 4.4 yard per carry average. Removing sack yardage tips the yards per carry value to 6.5. In fact, Notre Dame allowed four different Cardinal runners to average better than 4.5 yards per carry.

Only a substantial lead early in the game saved a defense incapable of stopping the Cardinal ground game. More problematic than an anemic rushing attack, the Irish defensive staff needs to find a way to stop the run.

Against Purdue, a team converting better than 90 percent of their red zone tries into points, Notre Dame’s defense buckled down inside their twenty and surrendered points only a third of the time. Against Stanford the Irish gave up a touchdown all three times the Cardinal offense penetrated the red zone.

There were, however, some bright spots. The Irish held the Stanford offense to a 22.2 percent third down conversion rate and forced them into five or more yards on 77.8 percent of the third downs. The primary problem was that Stanford faced only nine third downs.

Notre Dame’s defense gave up a relatively modest 115 yards (33.5 percent of the total offense) on five big plays for a 23 yard per play average. Nearly all of these big play yards came on the ground (four runs for 88 yards). However, even without the big plays Stanford matched the Irish per play average of 3.8 yards.

For the year the Irish are allowing more than 42 percent of opposing teams’ yardage to come from big plays at an average of 29.6 yards per play and 159.6 yards per game.

The Irish also allowed Pritchard to complete 64.3 percent of his passes for 182 yards. On the day, Pritchard was good for a 6.5 yard per attempt and 10.1 yard per completion average. Those attempt and completion averages aren’t jaw-dropping values, but they are hardly respectable.

Notre Dame did, however, have a productive day pressuring Pritchard as the Irish registered a sack for the first time since their week one game against San Diego State. On the day the Irish logged five quarterback sacks for 48 yards. For many, a shade over one sack a game isn’t what was expected from a Jon Tenuta led defense. Hopefully the performance Saturday is an omen of things to come.

Leading the way on the defensive side of the ball was a determined and disruptive Pat Kuntz. With a fumble return, interception, two sacks, and one batted ball, Kuntz had an incredible stat line in the box score.

Following behind Kuntz were Irish safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton. McCarthy logged 14 tackles (seven solo), one tackle for a loss, and an interception. Bruton turned in nine tackles (5 solo) and an interception of his own. Both McCarthy and Bruton have played extremely well all season.

Special Teams

A Notre Dame team typically solid in coverage units wasn’t on Saturday. For much of the day the Cardinal intensity on special teams far exceeded that of their counterparts.

On the year Notre Dame is allowing only 6.2 yards per punt return and 15.7 per kickoff return. Saturday those numbers exceeded 11 and 22 respectively. In particular, the Irish allowed Stanford to have excellent field position via a 38 yard punt return in the fourth quarter and gifted the Cardinal excellent field position another time with a fair catch interference penalty.

The poor coverage units showed as the Irish averaged only 32.2 net yards per punt and 40.2 yards per kickoff. Both values are down from season averages of 39 and 47.2 respectively. Against a good running team a short field is a liability and Stanford proved this.

Notre Dame also averaged only 18 yards per kickoff rerturn and failed to successfully execute a single punt return.

But the most disappointing aspect of special teams is the continued problems in the place kicking game. On the year Notre Dame is now one of seven on field goal attempts. Despite only one attempt coming from fewer than 40 yards, a 14.3 percent field goal conversion rate is unacceptable and easily could have cost the Irish the game.

Summary

Notre Dame was victorious due to a decisive advantage in turnover margin. However, statistically speaking, the Irish did not play a complete game. If not for early Stanford turnovers and big plays that built a lead, a porous Irish run defense would have likely paved the way for a defeat.

The absence of an effective run game and inability to stop the run is a precursor to another loss for the Irish. It is inevitable that Notre Dame will be unable to successfully control the ball and run out the clock. Equally probable is another close game where the defense wears down and yields to a powerful running attack late in the contest.