A few things to talk about now that our game with Georgia Tech is drawing near...
Charlie Weis released the "official" depth chart last night. There are still a few positions that are listed with OR's but for the most part things have ironed themselves out. A few surprises jumped out at me initially.
There are no surprises at quarterback, running back, or fullback. I have a feeling it is more like Travis Thomas and then the rest of the guys. It's tough to tell if it will be Parris or Hord as our third wide receiver as one is listed as backing up Grimes while the other is listed as backing up West. I think that we may see some of each depending on the personnel package and what type of play we are trying to run.
Along the offensive line Bartley Webb and Chris Stewart aren't listed in the two deep. That means that freshmen Matt Romine and Taylor Dever surpassed them with very little time in practice. This surprised me a little. The other thing that jumped out at me on the offensive line is that no one's name was listed twice. That's quite a feat giving the small number of players we have at this position and speaks to the talent and depth that we have developed. It looks like Wenger beat out Carufel for the starting job at right guard. That means he and Sam Young will be playing together again after doing so in high school, albeit with Wenger then manning the center position.
One of the biggest surprises to me is Will Yeatman is listed as the number two tight end. This surprises me for a couple of reasons. One, Reuland is widely reported to be the faster, better pass catching threat of the two. And second, Yeatman missed quite a few practices last spring due to Lacrosse. I would have thought this would give Reuland time to progress a little more. My guess, and it is only conjecture at this point, is that Yeatman will be more advantageous as the second tight end given our proclivity to run this year. He is bigger, more agile (although not faster), more physical, and stronger than Reuland. This makes him a better prospect to be used as an H-back, which is how I believe he will be used.
It appears that Brockington and Smith (Toryan) are still battling for the inside linebacker position. Given Brockington's show in the linebacker agility drills in practice (easily the best of all the linebackers) that must mean Toryan brings something special to the scrimmage/game aspect of the position. I'm guessing he is more physical at the point of attack, something we may be in need of against certain teams. Look to see these two guys used fairly interchangeably. Ryan and Vernaglia locked down the outside linebacker positions with Kerry Neal and Brian Smith both listed as backing up Vernaglia and Maurice Richardson (my darkhorse) listed as backing up Ryan. Many out there believe it is only a matter of time before Neal or Smith pass up Vernaglia.
The biggest surprise of the depth chart is that Darrin Walls is listed as a starting corner rather than Ambrose Wooden. If Walls gives us the best chance to win then so be it. I do, however, feel for Wooden. He is often maligned at his position but people seem to forget that his hustle really paid dividends for us over the last two years, especially saving the touchdown against Michigan two years ago. I really enjoy watching players I know go hard all game, every play. Considering he never played corner until his sophomore year at ND I think he's done quite nicely. Everyone raves about the coverage skills of Walls (and Gary Gray and Raeshon McNeil) but it was a lack of physical play that made him a liability to me. Deon Sanders was a great coverage corner but in the latter years of his career people figured out how to beat him, run it right at him.
The final item of note on the depth chart is Armando Allen and Golden Tate being listed as the kick returners. Provided their nerves don't get the best of them this should be a great combination of return men for us. Both have exceptional speed and quickness (evident by their high school track records). With the kickoff being moved back there will be more opportunities to set up blocking lanes. Speed will become an even greater asset in the return game.
The talking heads at ESPN are back at it again. I'll give you one piece of advice. Ignore everything college football analysts say with the exception of Kirk Herbstreit. He is the only intelligent, impartial, and consistently correct analyst there is in college football. I hate to make that statement and leave Lou Holtz out, but it's true. He and Mark May are simply there for television ratings via antagonizing charades. Lou's prediction of ten wins and May's prediction of five are both uninformed and laced with bias. Only Herbstreit's prediction of eight wins is reasonable. Add in the bowl game to give us nine and you reach my prediction.
Also, prepare yourself for the upcoming statements from the media about losing Brady Quinn and how he is irreplaceable. These comments will become even more prevalent when we approach games against the better teams on our schedule. Never mind the fact that these are the same people that said he wasn't that good, and that he didn't perform in the so called "big games." The irony is so thick you could cut it with a knife. If he wasn't that good and couldn't perform in big games last year then how is he so irreplaceable this year?
Jimmy Clausen was available to the media on Friday as part of the only day that the freshmen will be able to talk to the media all year. I'm certain it was a circus. He read a prepared statement saying that he did have a bone spur, that he had a minor arthroscopic procedure to remove it, and that he had been rehabbing it ever since while practicing and throwing every day. He said he was "day-to-day." This statement, although seemingly inconsistent, never contradicted anything Weis said.
Weis never denied the rumors that Clausen had a bone spur, he simply said he was full go in practice last spring. He told him not to throw for a while, to give it a rest. I'm sure this allowed it to subside enough for him to get the necessary reps in the spring. The surgery to officially repair it came just after the spring in order to be ready for the fall. He also never said he was fully healthy in fall practice, he simply said he would be ready to be the starting quarterback on September 1st against Georgia Tech. And as for the "day-to-day" status. We all (read the media) seem to forget Weis' rant two years ago about how any time a player was asked about an injury they would say they were "day-to-day."
This is all just another smoke screen and should be the final lesson to us that if Weis' doesn't want us to know something, we won't know it. He's looking out for the best interest of the team by keeping everything as a guessing game for Georgia Tech and increasing their preparation. He's even said this to the media and requested that they not ask him questions about who the starting quarterback is. He also said he hasn't even told the starter who he is so that Sharpley, Jones, or Clausen won't have to lie to the media (in the same breath he said that if the starter doesn't know who he is by now he isn't very smart). There's a good article about it here and here and proof all over the publications that cover Georgia Tech football that it is forcing them to prepare for two different types of quarterback.
The media, however, is hating it. They just can't stand not having the coverage of such a huge money making publication in college football. So what do they do? They mistakenly portray Charlie's intelligent and completely justifiable handling of the situation as arrogance in order to take a shot at him and the program as well as to get their writing to the front page. There's nothing that readers crave more than a good, controversial story about Notre Dame. Notre Dame lovers and haters unite in a common goal to read, banter, and, in the case of the lovers, dissect the writing for it's usual lack of factual basis and logical conclusions.
Stewart Mandel over at Sports Illustrated is just the latest in a long line to do this although his attack is even more direct and personal. Reading the article you can just feel the emotion in it, the pure amount of disdain and anger Mandel has for Weis. But I can't stress enough the fact that the article is void of nearly anything intelligible. It is really comical given the fact that journalists are supposed to be impartial. I just don't understand why the media is so angry about this that they would take retribution with personal attacks on Weis. I guess he expects it though as it has certainly deflected attention away from the quarterbacks themselves.
I'm not going to link the article because I don't want it to get any more hits than necessary, but his lack of football knowledge shines through with statements like "That’s interesting, considering numerous other coaches who seem to know what they’re doing -- Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, Florida State’s Bobby Bowden, Nebraska’s Bill Callahan -- apparently did not see the same harm in publicly announcing similar decisions over the past week." and "Does Weis really think Jackets defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta hasn’t watched every available high-school tape (or, in Sharpley’s case, those two collegiate pass attempts) of the three QBs by now? Furthermore, Tech just played the Irish last season, so it’s not like Tenuta isn’t familiar with Weis’ offense (which is far more important to know than the identity of the QB himself). And while the athletic Jones does present a potential wrinkle with his running ability, I’m guessing the Jackets aren’t unfamiliar with the concept -- considering their last game was in the Gator Bowl against West Virginia speedster Pat White.".
I guess Mandel didn't bother to check his first statement against the fact that they don't have as much quarterback talent on their roster at those other schools. Additionally, Oklahoma and Nebraska play North Texas and Nevada respectively as their first games. If our first opponent was a pancake like that I doubt Weis would be that concerned either. The second statement is simply asinine given a couple of facts. First, there are numerous reports out there that Tenuta has been preparing for two different types of QB's, one mainly passing and one who is more athletic and versatile. Mandel's statement that the offense is far more important than the identity of the QB is ludicrous given Weis' history of saying he caters his offense to fit his players and would undoubtedly adjust it to fit Demetrius Jones' particular set of skills. Second, Tenuta is indeed familiar with Pat White and the more versatile quarterback from the bowl game last year. In fact, he is very familiar. West Virginia hung 311 rushing yards on Tenuta's famed defense last year with a mobile quarterback in a spread offense. That's something to assure that you are very familiar with it. Mandel dismissing the importance and magnitude of facing a Jones-type player vs. a Clausen-type player is ignorance of football at its best.
I would like to thank Pat Scoggins for his yearly background. He does a fabulous job with it every year and this is no exception. Please download and post for your background to support the Irish. If you have problems with it email me (you can find my email address in my profile at the upper right of the main blog page) and I'll try and work with you on it.
ESP
Well, it's coming around to that time of year again. For an explanation of the ESP visit the link on the right side of the blog of just go here. I'd like to take this opportunity, however, to lay a few "ground rules" for these two things. I would like to once again give credit where credit is due for the ESP. I did not come up with this alone. Vinnie and I both put this together with a considerable amount of work. The ESP won't be released until week six of the football season. As I've said before, pre-season polls are meaningless and give unfair advantages to many teams by creating a "lose early is better" scenario in college football. While these pre-season polls still factor into our analysis, the magnitude by which they do is less later in the season. For this reason we will not release the ESP until after week six. Finally, I'd like to point out the fact that the AV Ranking, our computer ranking and one-third of the ESP ranking, successfully predicted the winner in four of the five BCS games last year including Boise State and Florida. The one we didn't successfully predict was USC and Michigan but the margin by which Michigan was ranked over USC was nearly nothing suggesting the winner of that game to be a toss-up. I'd say that's a pretty good validation of our model.
Georgia Tech Keys To Winning
My final topic of interest are the Georgia Tech keys to winning. And make no mistake about it, this is a game we can certainly win. I know many of you may disagree thinking that we barely edged it out last year, that they return a solid corps of players, and that we lost a ton of offensive talent. Let me explain...
Georgia Tech's defense last year was much better than most expected but it is a defense predicated on speed and aggressiveness. They like to blitz from all angles and they employ fast, aggressive players in their secondary and at the linebacker position. In fact, I would say that the linebackers are a little undersized to give them more speed at that position. That type of defense poses significant challenges for a finesse type of offense like we had last year. We tried to outplay them in the running game using zone blocking schemes rather than trying to create running lanes via traps, folds, iso's, and other more "angled" blocking schemes. We also tried to spread them out and make them cover the whole field. Those were our strengths but it is precisely those types of offensive strategies that their defense was built to defend.
This year, I believe we are more of a physical running team at the point of attack. I see us using more counter, trap, and trey blocking techniques to try and create lanes for our runners. The way to beat a fast, aggressive defense is to run right at them (negate the speed) and use mis-direction plays, e.g. a counter running play, to take them out of position (allow their aggressiveness to take them out of the play).
Accordingly, I think our offensive success hings almost exclusively on two things. First, we need to control the line of scrimmage and play well at the point of attack. I belief we have the depth and talent at offensive line to do this. And second, we need to run with a physical attitude and downhill presence. Again, I believe we have the depth and talent to do this. Want proof of this blueprint? See Clemson's game against Georgia Tech last year where they only completed seven of the sixteen passes they through but put up 321 yards of rushing offense to win convincingly.
Problems will arise with negative yardage plays. We really can't afford too many of these as a more physical running game is a "nickel and dime" type of offensive approach. We likely won't have a passing game to make up for negative yardage plays. As such, look for Weis to a) run some play action passes on non-obvious play action downs and b) motion from tighter formations into more of a spread formation with our two and three tight end personnel. The former will be slightly risky but has the capability to pay huge dividends especially with our talent at tight end. The latter will allow us to spread out their defense while still having larger bodies on the field. This creates mismatches for us getting a safety or a linebacker covering our tight ends.
You will hear everyone talk about how difficult it is going to be for a new quarterback to face this type of a fast, aggressive defense. Ordinarily I would say that is the case. But I don't think Weis will ever give our quarterbacks the opportunity to get rattled. He knows we aren't going to win this game with if we have to come back with a few minutes left. He's going to do everything in his power to prevent his quarterback from being placed in those situations. This, combined with a straight-ahead, physical running game should take Georgia Tech's defensive strengths and make them their weakness.
On defense I think our success depends purely on stopping the run game. With an inexperienced quarterback playing in a hostile environment (and if you are going to the game do your part to make it this way) I believe they will look to establish the running game early and often. They return the ACC's leading rusher and several offensive lineman while losing All-World receiver Calvin Johnson. This all points to them being a run-first type of team. If we can stop their running game and get them into third and long our chances of getting our defense off the field dramatically improve. Of course, I am basing this on my perception of our improved outside pass rushing capabilities. I believe we will be able to pressure their quarterback on obvious passing downs by blitzing from the outside.
I believe both our offensive and defensive success depends primarily on controlling the line of scrimmage and good play from our offensive line and defensive front seven. This will not only set the tone of the game but will go a long way in determining down and distance. I look for this game to be a "grind it out" type of contest void of quick strike offensive plays. That isn't, however, to say that a score won't come from special teams where I'm excited about the combination of Golden Tate, Armando Allen, and long kickoffs.
Hand's Punishment
The least pleasant item on the list involves the punishment of Derrell Hand. For the record, when hand was arrested I thought he would, in the least, be out for the season. Per the precedent ND set with Kyle McAlarney, get arrested for a misdemeanor and get indefinitely suspended from your athletic team as well as expelled from the University. I was mistaken. Apparently McAlarney's punishment wasn't a precedent. Rather, it was an aberration. Hand will have no removal from the University. He will serve a three game suspsension and probably received some community service and a fine in addition to the requirements of the pretrial diversion program he entered. This reeks of favoratism from the University for the football team, something we don't need.
I don't presume to know all of the facts of the situation and, as such, I do not want to make comments about right and wrong or the punishment Hand should face. I hope the University treated Hand like any other student and punished him accordingly. From other residential life cases I am more intimately familiar with, that doesn't seem to be the case but that is another discussion for another time. My concern is there is little doubt the way the University handled this will be used against us in the future. Critics will point to the disconnect in the way the University treated one of their basketball players vs. one of their football players. It is just giving the media more ammunition they don't need. They are already critical of our football program and our perceived "sell our soul to win" attitude regardless of the fact that the overwhelming majority of other programs have far more disciplinary problems than we do. Just like the Willingham fiasco, real or perceived, this inconsistency in the way that ND handled the situation will come back to bite the University. The bottom line is that we are held to a higher standard. Perhaps we should be, don't we hold ourselves to a higher standard?
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the University should punish Hand just like they punished McAlarney for the sake of consistency. As I said above we most definitely do not have all of the facts of the situation which is a positive indication of both damage control and respecting both athletes' privacy. I am saying, however, that the University should be prepared to handle questions about the inconsistency in a very prepared, direct, and non-vague manner. It is this type of thing that has come back to bite us in the past and this negative publicity has usually been amplified by either no response to the attention the situation was getting and/or an unprepared, inept response(s) at the time of questioning. I just want to avoid this happening in Weis' third year when the comparisons to Willingham will inevitably surface. Nevermind the fact that Washington's program has so many discipline problems from Junior College transfers and a terrible record, people will still point to Charlie's record in his third year and directly compare it to Willingham's sans any other links between the two coaches, programs, and players. Only an uninformed football observer or a "journalist" hell bent on casting ND in a negative light would make such an unsubstantiated comparison...but they are out there.
Mike Coffey very nearly echos my sentiments and much more elequently (link here).
