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Monday, October 15, 2007

Post BC Thoughts

After watching this game I had a lot of thoughts on many things. I'll try and break them out here. On a side note, Ismail is an idiot and very much looks the part while on camera.

1) Boston College and Matt Ryan
2) The quarterback controversy (again)
3) Weis
4) Brown and the Defense
5) Offense and Special Teams
6) Going Forward

Boston College And Matt Ryan

Boston College tried to give us that game in a few ways, namely with a lot of inopportune penalties. The bottom line is we didn't do enough to win offensively. Make no mistake about it, Boston College is a solid football team. They aren't flashy or overly talented, they aren't a great football team, but they have solid players at nearly all the skill positions and Matt Ryan is very, very good. In a typical football year I would say they are a top ten team. This year, in the absence of any great teams, they might be a top five team. If they run up against a team with much more talent they may have a difficult time winning.

In many ways Ryan reminds of Brady Quinn only he looked a bit more poised. He doesn't throw the deep out as well as Quinn but he is bigger, reads play development more quickly, doesn't force or make poor decisions, and seems to have a little better touch than Quinn. Plain and simple, he was one of two reasons we lost this game.

I really believe the other reason, excluding our play and focusing on theirs, was Andre Callender. He is a very versatile player and really created matchup problems for us. Eventually we adjusted to compensate (something I'll discuss below in the Brown section) but he still killed us with screen passes.

The Quarterback Controversy (Again)

I thought I'd get this one out of the way near the beginning. No, I do not think Sharpley is a better quarterback than Clausen. Yes, he moved the ball, at least at times. And yes, he may give us a better chance to win in the here and now. However, his play, even in this game, was erratic and potentially disastrous. Anyone who says differently needs to go back and re-watch the film to make certain they believe what they're saying. I'm not trying to say that Clausen is without flaws. I have as many doubts about him as I do about Weis and the future of our program under him. But I think that Clausen, in the pure sense of the word, is a better quarterback. Let me elaborate.

Clausen

Clausen's strength is his accuracy. When he does throw the ball he puts it on target a large portion of the time. The kid is completing nearly 60% (57.4% to be exact) of his passes and he has to throw a large portion of them away to avoid taking a loss on the sack. Taking that into account, he is actually probably closer to a 65% passer. Part of this is because most of his throws are of the shorter variety. He hasn't completed many deep balls with the exception of a few bench routes (which he throws better than most quarterbacks I've seen). But there are other things I believe are strengths for him. He is very tough and is competitive as hell. He wants to win and will do whatever it takes (even selflessly in many cases) to do so. He may know and/or believe he is the best quarterback of the future but he isn't blind, he understands Sharpley leads the offense to scoring drives and is still excited for the team as a whole when we score.

When watching Clausen's high school film I thought there were a few things that stuck out to me. First, of course, was his accuracy. Second, was his release. He has a very quick release and can really get the ball out quickly. In seven-on-seven he was virtually unstoppable. Third, he understood the offense. He felt pressure coming from the right places, could escape it a large portion of the time, and then threw well on the run. And fourth, his mechanics were flawless. His play fakes were perfect, his feet were perfect, his ball placement was perfect. He was the perfect example of how to execute the mechanics of the quarterback position.

I think there are a few things holding him back. I've mentioned it before but I think he is still struggling with the difference in speed between high school and college. If he isn't comfortable with a play, he hesitates. I've noticed that on a certain set of passing plays he really looks good. He gets the ball out quickly, puts it right on the money, throws it prior to the cut, and makes the right read. On other plays he doesn't. In college, that hesitation gives the defense time to react more. I don't think it is that our receivers never get open. I think that many times he doesn't make the read fast enough and doesn't get the ball out on the cut or slightly before giving the secondary time to break and close down the gap. This results in receivers not being open. The window of a receiver being open, so to speak, is smaller between high school and college. To me, this is the biggest reason he hasn't succeeded and manifests itself in him holding onto the ball too long. With the quickness we have at receiver in Grimes, West, and Tate they will be open unless the defender jumps the route. The key is to get the ball there in time while they are still open.

Second, I believe he is still unfamiliar with how the offense. Part of this is a relatively low number of reps, part of this is on Weis for not simplifying things, and part of it is just a natural adjustment to a more complex scheme. I also believe Clausen is still feeling the effects of the injury. He looks to still be banged up from all the hits he has taken in addition to lacking the arm strength I thought he had. I never thought of him as having a cannon, but the film I've seen of him in high school he was making throws look effortless. Now it seems that he has to put everything he has into every throw. It could be that his arm is weak, not from the injury directly, but indirectly from the time off throwing and lifting. It could also be the lingering effects of all the hits he's taken. It will be paramount for him to get stronger and faster in the off-season. And finally, I think his mechanics have regressed. I think this is mostly due to him not adjusting to the speed of the game as well as being "rushed" as he spends a good deal of time running for his life. His play fakes are poor, his footwork average, and his ball placement OK. These things that were largely his strengths have regressed due to the game moving at a faster pace and no time when he drops back to pass.

So I'd say that I think, from a quarterback intangibles perspective he is a little hit or miss. His accuracy is excellent, but his reads, his ability to get the ball out quickly, and his holding on to the ball too long is really detrimental to the offense. From a physical standpoint I think he really lacks many of the tools he needs to succeed. Obviously he is tough, but he needs to get stronger and quicker. It shouldn't look like he's straining just to get the ball out on a quick hitch or arrow route and he needs to at least be able to avoid some of the slower defensive lineman running him down. A lot of this could be due to the injury and youth, only time will tell.

Sharpley

Sharpley is a grossly inaccurate passer at times. He puts too much behind his balls and he is much more of an improvising player as opposed to the more polished passer Clausen is. He is only completing about 54% of his passes with very few being balls he threw away. That isn't going to cut it in many cases. That said, Sharpley does a much better job of getting the ball out more quickly. I think it must be the more time he has in the system because he has a slower release than Clausen, albeit a little more velocity on his ball. The bottom line is that he is hit or miss, a kind of big risk, big reward type of quarterback. Against an inferior secondary (e.g. Purdue and Boston College) his play will more often result in big rewards. But against better secondaries it could spell disastser.

But that difference in getting the ball out quickly is huge right now in the offense. It takes pressure off the offensive line, allows us to release more receivers out into routes, and, combined with his mobility, allows the offense to operate more openly. For this reason alone, I think he currently gives us a better chance to win. However, even though he gets the ball out more quickly, if he continues to over-throw receivers and/or make poor decisions better secondaries will make him pay. Boston College isn't exactly a great secondary and other teams with better talent will be able to pressure with four and cover with seven, making accuracy a much more important commodity. As it was Boston College probably could have had a couple of picks in the game Saturday. Many plays I watched I didn't even know if Sharpley was throwing to a person on our team.

I know many will point to plays like the one where he elluded a bunch of pressure to get the ball to Carlson as reason alone for Sharpley to start. To me, that play is downright stupid. I know it ended well but he could have easily fumbled that ball and killed all hope of a comeback. Combine that with the three balls he threw that could have been intercepted and the only reason he didn't give the game away was poor play by Boston College not taking advantage of the gifts we gave them.

Summary

To cut it short, the current shortcomings of Clausen spell disaster for an inexperienced offense whose front five can't block air (and that's exactly what they tried to do on Saturday while letting many defensive linemen run right past them). While I believe Clausen to be the better quarterback as a whole, even right now, the offensive situation we face, whether it be because of poor play calling and/or coaching, is more conducive to a quarterback that has some elusive ability and can orchestrate a short, three step/downfield passing game with some proficiency. Clausen can't do the former due to lacking athletic ability and seemingly can't do the latter due to his lack of experience (hopefully) in the system and weaker arm. I hope my fears concerning Clausen are explained by a lack of experience and injury although the notion that he was surrounded by a ton of talent in high school and played against inferior competition may be more true than not. It's difficult to imagine that Weis (who has an excellent eye for quarterback talent) and every high school recruiting scout was wrong about him. Having said all that, I believe Sharpley will start against USC, play poorly, throw a few picks and/or make some big mental mistakes, and get benched in lieu of Clausen.

Weis

To say that I believe the coaching this year has been disastrous is an understatement. I think Weis should have to reimburse us for his compensation. We desperately needed to win six games this year to be bowl eligible. I don't care if we would have won the bowl game or not, we needed the extra weeks of practice with such a young team. Now that is lost. Let me count the ways he fumbled in this game and over the course of the season.

1) 2 to 1 time of possession: Boston College had the ball nearly twice as long as we did. Why? Because Weis decided it was a good idea to come out in the no huddle offense with a short passing game against a team who averages 36+ points a game and with an offense that can't effectively run his normal offensive package, let alone something more complicated and fast paced. I know he has used this in the past to jump-start the offense, so to speak, but that was with an experienced quarterback. To me this was a disastrous mistake. We should have been huddling to take time off the clock and keep the Boston College offense off the field. Additionally, we should have had a focus on the running game against a team with defensive ends that weigh 235 and 241 lbs and another defensive tackle that weighs 284 lbs. Let me reiterate that Schwapp weighs 261 lbs, Aldridge weighs 222 lbs, and Hughes weighs 238 lbs. On top of that our offensive line averages 305 lbs. So our backs weigh nearly as much as their defensive ends and their defensive line averages 271 lbs meaning our offensive line out-weighed them by 34 lbs a man. We should have been able to lean on them and get a block. The same was true of UCLA and Purdue. It is absolutely and inexplicably inexcusable.

2) We have no semblance of a running game (less than 500 yards through seven games). With the talent we have at the running back and offensive line positions there is no excuse for this. It should have been a huge priority in the off season to make it easier for our inexperienced offensive line to block and to take pressure off a first time starting quarterback. I know our players are young, but that should manifest itself in a lack of consistency, not ineptitude. I believe his repeated changes in the offensive philosophy from installing the spread to working too much on the passing game have delayed this crucial development and left the players scrambling for an identity, something I cover a little more below.

3) Tate/Allen: These two are supposed to be our "gamebreakers" right? How about working on the screen game to give Allen the ball with space and blockers ahead of him? How about some slip/bubble screens to Tate? How about getting the ball into their hands in any way possible in addition to the kickoff return opportunities? Allen has only touched the ball 51 times this year (excluding kickoff returns). If he can take it to the house every time he touches it (as Weis has proclaimed) then why wouldn't we want to give him more opportunities? It seems that Weis would rather be flexible in his offensive strategy via installing the spread zone read for one game rather than working on specific plays designed to get the ball into the hands of our playmakers.

4) Offensively we seem to be trying new things every week until something works rather than discovering what we need to be good at (to take pressure off a young, inexperienced offensive line and quarterback), what we are built to be good at (from a personnel perspective), and working on that. Weis said many times that he needed to wait until he found what our offensive identity was, what we could "hang our hat on." Sometimes this has to be created, but not necessarily in a creative way. He has spent too long waiting for it to happen rather than creating an environment in practice that produces it. The installation of the spread was a disaster in the game and delayed our offensive development, shattering any identity we might have formed in the fall. It seems like Weis is only a good offensive play caller if he has all the tools in his belt. He needs to learn to pick a few, essential tools and sharpen them to make them better.

5) Empty promises: Have you seen a "nasty" offensive football team in his tenure? With the exception of Powers-Neal through the first six games of Weis' first year I don't think we have had any semblance of a power running game. Furthermore, we often times throw the ball rather than run it in short yardage situations. Typically, we don't block well at the wide receiver position and our physical offensive line play has been, at its very best, slightly above average during the 2.5 years Weis has coached. He even went so far as to say that he was impressed by the physicality of our play against Boston College. I don't know if he watched the same game I did but 27 yards on 21 carries doesn't exactly inspire me to believe we played physically. Neither does our inability to convert any short yardage situation with a running play. There seems to be a disconnect between what he sees and what actually occurs on the field. Additionally, I have not seen an offensive guru on our sideline in quite some time. Rather than putting our players in a position to win based on their talents and abilities, he has tried to force-feed his philosophy and offensive play calling to them. Finally, the improvement on special teams Weis spoke of the day he was announced as the Notre Dame football coach hasn't been there with the exception of Zibi's punt return capabilities in his first year.

6) I am very concerned about Weis' notion of developing talent. In the NFL the talent is there, rarely is it developed (I think this article does a good job of summarizing the differences in developing talent between college and the NFL
here). Rather, the teaching and coaching is more of instructive as opposed to physical. In college the players are still developing both physically and athletically. You can recruit talent all you want, but unless you develop it into something resembling a football player it will only be talent, it will only be athleticism. This in large part the job of assistant coaches but Weis may not have the experience to be able to determine when the assistant coaches are doing their job and when they aren't, at least from a player development perspective. I can't see how the staff isn't capable of doing this and we certainly have the young talent to develop into great football players, but right now it seems like Notre Dame is the place where good coaches and talent goes to die. Davie recruited well in his first couple of years, but it rarely showed up on the field. Everyone seems to give Weis a pass right now because he is recruiting well. So far, I haven't seen it show up on the field. I know the players are relatively young, but many of them have game experience due to being thrust into roles. This excuse will cease to exist starting next season. Callahan at Nebraska has had a pass on this as well. I don't think he has much time left after bringing in several top recruiting classes and having a great deal of talent on the roster when he came in but not producing consistently on the field.

7) We have not improved at all on offense since the beginning of the season. In fact, we may have regressed. We have no running game, no physical presence, cannot protect the quarterback, can't execute a screen, and do not effectively throw the ball even though it seems like that is all we work on in practice. As the offensive coordinator Weis is ultimately responsible for this.

8) I'm sick and tired of hearing how we did enough to be successful on this drive or played well enough to win or played well on defense but not on offense or special teams, etc. From game one Weis has been too satisfied in wins and losses. No matter what, you should demand perfection. Forget picking your poison. You don't shut down the run and give up the pass. You try and be perfect. You don't settle for anything less than perfection. You play well in every facet of the game and you demand that as the head coach. I'm not saying you don't focus on their weaknesses and your strengths to maximize your potential to win. But the head coach should never be pleased with anything less than a perfect game.

9) What is up with all of the personal foul penalties? That is Weis' responsibility and is evident of a lack of control over the team. Need more evidence of this lack of control? How about Jones not showing up on the bus for Michigan (I'm not blaming Weis just saying it is symptomatic) and over ten transfers from when he started. Some of those kids may have not been able to cut a tougher coaching style. If that is the case good riddance. I'm hoping this aspect of our football program is due to players not having their heart into it/not wanting to work rather than a symptom of something larger.

10) Putting the game on Clausen's shoulders: Both before the game and at halftime Weis said he had to put more of the game on Clausen's shoulders. That sounds like a great idea. Why don't we make our banged-up, inexperienced, freshman quarterback who has no running game and an offensive line that blocks only air win us the game. Good call coach, good call.

Brown and the Defense

It seems like Corwin Brown is coming into his own. I say that for two reasons. First, he has developed into a more talented play caller. And second, he gets the most out of his players. If there was one thing I was impressed by on Saturday it was how hard our defense played. For the second straight week in a row we played hard, fast, and aggressive, essentially dictacting what the opposing offense was able to do. I haven't seen our defense play this well since Ty's first season. Even though we are dramatically undersized up front (which is even more of a problem in a 3-4 than a 4-3) we have had admirable defensive line play. If we have more talent and size at this position we would be a very imposing defense. The linebackers have also improved over the last two weeks both in containment and in filling holes.

I thought the plan against Boston College was perfect save two exceptions. Brown wanted to try and pressure Ryan into errant throws. It is too hopeful to expect Ryan to make mistakes and force turnovers but getting pressure on him might have been enough to force his hand early. Our defense took on a blitzing, press man coverage look where we sent six and seven to get to Ryan. While we were unable to sack Ryan, we did force some early and inaccurate throws. There was only two problems with this.

In the first half Boston College had two plays where they exploited the mismatch created by this scheme. Since we were blitzing six and seven players we had one-on-one coverage matching up and inside linebacker (many times Brockington) on Callender. One time Boston College motioned Callender out to the flat, taking Brockington out with him, and ran it right where Brockington was. This resulted in the 50+ yard scamper by Whitworth in the first drive of the game. The second time this was expoited was the second touchdown when Callender went in motion to the left, we sent the house, and Ryan hit him on a slant with Brockington in coverage. Later in the game Brown adjusted and pulled an inside linebacker moving Zibi up to cover Callender and bringing in McCarthy for Zibi at the safety position. This was very good recognition and largely solved the mismatch problem.

The second problem I had was in how we rolled our coverage. When we brought pressure we inevitably played man coverage (with a very few exceptions where we ran zone blitzes) since we were using so many players to put pressure on Ryan. This resulted in us rolling the safeties over to cover someone. Unfortunately for us we faced a very experienced and special quarterback who was able to read this and get the ball out quickly to the receiver before we could roll our coverage over. My problem with this is as follows: Ryan is a good enough quarterback to recognize when we are going to send the blitz and from where it is coming. Why not roll the coverage over pre-snap and try and get the press man coverage there from the snap? It may have allowed us to get more significant pressure on Ryan.

A special shout out to Walls who played more physically, Laws who is still unblockable, and our entire front five who played their butts off on Saturday. Williams impressed me while in at the end of the game. He has surprising quickness for someone his size.

Offense and Special Teams

I've covered many of this above in the Weis section but I had a few more points. Aldridge has got to get quicker off the snap. He takes too long to get back to the line of scrimmage. If he is too deep and if we are calling the wrong plays for his type of running style then I blame Weis as well but most of the time they are isolation plays and/or some stretch plays where we try and seal to the inside. He has to become more explosive out of the blocks or he will continue to have trouble. Of course it isn't too much to ask for the offensive line to create a hole that stays open for more than a fraction of a second.

If we have even an average offense I think we beat Penn State, Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, and Boston College based on how we played on those given days. Instead of one and six we are looking at five and two. Now I'm doubting we can even beat the last four teams on our schedule including Navy who has looked very good the times I've watched them this season. I am baffled given the talent on our roster.

Three of the Boston College drives were 41, 11, and 44 yards. This was mostly due to offense with the last drive coming as a result of the celebration penalty. That's three scoring drives combining for 96 yards. We can't win giving them a short field like that and we continue to put our defense in terrible position.

It can't be said enough. We have the worst offensive line in the history of college football. On more than a handful of plays a defensive lineman went unblocked. It's one thing to let a blitzing linebacker or safety go by. It's entirely different to watch the guy lining up in front of you come right across your face (the golden rule of an offensive lineman is to pick up anyone who crosses your face) and go untouched. It is absolutely pathetic. It looks like we are playing with one or two linemen as opposed to five. I have no explanation for this and watching it makes me want to vomit. Rather than the quarterback taking his offensive line out for dinner, our offensive linemen need to be buying the quarterbacks presents for not getting killed.

I have to give a shout out to Armando. He looked tough before, during, and after contact on Saturday.

Going Forward

I don't know if I've ever been so frustrated with our football team. We are completely inept on offense leaving our defense in terrible positions and negating excellent effort on their part. We need dramatic changes in our program both in terms of leadership at the top and in the direction we are moving as a team. I only hope that the recruiting doesn't fade, that we continue to bring in talent which we then develop, and that Weis can adapt and learn from his mistakes, adjusting to the college game. Weis is coming up the head coaching learning curve in a very difficult situation right now. It isn't that the schedule is tough, it isn't that we are young, it isn't that Weis has made poor coaching decisions, it isn't that we have no leadership and a dearth of talent in the upper classes, and it isn't that our schedule is tough through the first eight games. It is that all of those things are happening at the same time. Weis has never had this in the NFL, he always had "upper classmen" so to speak. Right now, due to the lack of talent and numbers in our upper classes, he doesn't have it. If he keeps bringing in talent and developing it he may never face this type of problem again, adjusting and adapting to it becomes a moot point. The article here does a very good job of summarizing it.

I will never stop supporting our team and I hope you continue to do the same. From the noise I heard in the stadium Saturday (when the team gave something to cheer about), the fans are still very much supporting the team.

ESP Week Seven

It's week seven of the season, otherwise known as week two of the ESP. Following in the footsteps of the previous ESP post (link here) I will show the ESP ranking, the playoff bracket, the 1-25 AV ranking, and the different portions of the AV ranking: SOS (Strength of Schedule), QWL (Quality Win/Loss), AWP (Adjusted Win Percentage), and MOV (Margin of Victory).

I'd like to point out that the accuracy of the ESP will be tested this year. With so many upsets, evident of no great teams and few good teams, games will be more of "toss ups" rather than the more traditional pitting of more evenly matched teams. For reference, to compare the ESP to the BCS, you can find the BCS standings
here. Also for reference, if you want to compare the AV rankings the Sagarin (rather popular in the computer ranking world) you can find it here.

OSU is number 1 in the BCS only because their computer rankings place less emphasis on strength of schedule than the AV does. If you note below they currently have the 108th toughest schedule in the country. Until more emphasis is placed on strength of schedule teams will continue to play weak non-conference schedules to achieve entrance into BCS games.


The ESP ranking:

The 8 team ESP playoff bracket:


The AV ranking1-25:

The strength of schedule (SOS) , adjusted win percentage (AWP), quality win/loss (QWL), and margin of victory (MOV) rankings: