Apologies to those who don't get the SNL skit referenced in the title of this post. There is an assortment of things to discuss, things not dissimilar from a grab bag, and thought I'd bring some humor to bear. Among these items are Notre Dame's schedule next year, the AV BCS game winner predictions, the state of college football, the 2007 seemingly anemic running game, and John David Booty and the Trojan offensive machine. With that, let's get started.
2008 Notre Dame Football Schedule
The 2008 Notre Dame football schedule is as follows:
September 6 San Diego State
September 13 Michigan
September 20 @ Michigan St.
September 27 Purdue
October 4 Stanford
October 11 @ North Carolina
October25 @ Washington
November 1 Pittsburgh
November 8 @ Boston College
November 15 @ Navy (Baltimore)
November 22 Syracuse
November 29 @ Southern Cal
At first glance the 2008 schedule is clearly less daunting than the 2007 schedule was. Second, only two teams on the 2008 schedule (Michigan and USC) have even a shot at having the same talent the Irish will have next season, young and inexperienced as it may be. With the turmoil at Michigan, losing a lot of very important offensive players, and getting a new head coach, I'd say only USC should be a decided favorite in any game. That said, Notre Dame is still a bit young and Weis has to prove he can adapt and overcome last year's poor performances.
The Irish have no business losing to San Diego State, Stanford, North Carolina, Washington, Navy, or Syracuse. San Diego State isn't even remotely as talented as the Irish. Stanford falls into the same category. North Carolina has some talent but it is young, it is sparing, and there are many critical elements not in place for them to be a successful football team, depth among them. Washington is a Tyrone Willingham coached football team who is largely untalented and unimpressive save Locker who, if he's smart, will transfer to a spread team with more talent around him. Navy will go back to being Navy without Paul Johnson. And Syracuse is absolutely horrid.
Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, and Boston College provide more interesting challenges. Dantonio has really transformed MSU from a team that is undisciplined and chokes to a team that is physical and doesn't hurt themselves (save the bowl game this year). It is a home game for them and, depending on how good of a running game they have, might give the Irish a tough contest. Pitt has quite a bit of talent despite not seeing a lot of it showing up on the field. They have the pieces, but it remains to be seen if Wannstedt can put it together. Purdue is Purdue. Tons of precision in the passing game which typically opens the run, but terrible defense and far less talent than the Irish. Boston College loses a ton of senior leadership and talent not to mention Matt Ryan. This is another away game for the Irish otherwise they might fall with the former group of six. Notre Dame should win two of these four games at a minimum.
Michigan is a wild card, there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the program with so many offensive players and seniors leaving, a new coach, and a possible change in offensive philosophy. It is a home game and (hopefully) the Irish will be vengeful after the debacle in 2007 (and 2006 for that matter). I can see Notre Dame getting a win but really it could go either way. USC is far too talented and deep for the Irish to compete with at this point.
This adds up to no fewer than eight wins. The Irish actually have a realistic shot at eleven. I think there is only one team on the schedule that has more talent and equal-to-better coaching. That said, the Irish are still a bit young and lack depth at certain positions. If Notre Dame does not get eight wins, the long-term answer for Weis as head coach of Notre Dame should be a resounding no. Additionally, the talent and experience disparity (not youth, but experience) between Notre Dame and the teams on the 2008 schedule isn't large enough to warrant a lop-sided loss. If the Irish lose by more than two or three scores, the long-term answer for Weis should also be no. Unfortunately, eight wins and competitive play in the other four games will mean the jury is still out. Weis has to prove that the 2007 season was an aberration. That will take quite a bit of time.
The AV BCS Game Winner Predictions
Well, the AV wasn't as successful this year as last picking the winners of the BCS and National Championship games. Last year the AV was four of five, only incorrectly picking the winner of the Michigan/USC contest in the Rose Bowl. This year the AV only successfully predicted two of the five games correctly, incorrectly picking the winners of the Rose, Fiesta, and Orange Bowls. This brings the total to six of ten, not quite a sterling percentage. With this season being so wild I anticipated a poorer showing as well even putting a caveat on the Rose Bowl pick (link here). Hopefully next year will be different.
The State of College Football
If there is anything I have learned this bowl season it's that college football is going downhill fast. Not only has ESPN and general media coverage ruined the academic integrity of college football athletics by completely over-sensationalizing the sport, but there are also more teams with little or no class than I can ever recall. By increasing the coverage and marketing every aspect of college football ESPN and other media outlets have made college football more about money than education. This has led schools to inexcusably focus on making money with their football programs, rather than developing their student athletes into young men with integrity and an education with which they can forge the rest of their lives.
On top of that, the lack of class exhibited by the likes of USC and Florida in their bowl games and the behavior of Urban Meyer and other head coaches in recruiting has cast a shadow on the college football landscape. There is no place for front flips into the end zone, taunting the opposition at the middle of the field, and negative recruiting in a game with integrity. Celebrations should occur with your team, the source of the individual player's success. They should not be aimed at the opposition or involve the crowd. Additionally, the lying, dishonesty, and negative recruiting employed by many coaches is absolutely intolerable. I don't say this in the wake of Omar Hunter's de-commitment out of spite (although admittedly he was one of the two players in Notre Dame's recruiting class they couldn't afford to lose). It has been prevalent for years. That doesn't, however, make it excusable. Coaches should do more than sell their souls and integrity to win. They have a responsibility to make their players into good people.
Notre Dame's 2007 Seemingly Anemic Running Game
Through various email conversations I started thinking and digesting our running game during the 2007 season. At first, I thought the Irish were not only inconsistent, but also widely unsuccessful. I was wrong. At the onset of this discussion I would like to credit Sam Martin for looking up the statistics and providing a majority of the insight into this analysis.
Here are the touches for Notre Dame's top three backs (Armando Allen, Robert Hughes, and James Aldridge) for each game:
Georgia Tech: 9 for 44 yards, 4.9 yards per carry
Penn State: 9 for 8 yards, 0.9 yards per carry
Michigan: 19 for 75 yards, 3.9 yards per carry
Michigan State: 27 for 150 yards, 5.6 yards per carry
Purdue: 12 for 34 yards, 2.8 yards per carry
UCLA: 25 for 71 yards, 2.8 yards per carry
Boston College: 13 for 32 yards, 2.5 yards per carry
USC: 15 for 61 yards, 4 yards per carry
Navy: 49 for 219 yards, 4.5 yards per carry
Air Force: 24 for 92 yards, 3.8 yards per carry
Duke: 34 for 179 yards, 5.3 yards per carry
Standford: 24 for 140 yards, 5.8 yards per carry
Looking at these numbers a few things become readily apparent. First, when sacks and other player running attempts are taken out, the numbers really aren't bad. Only against Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, and Boston College are the yards per carry not respectable. Additionally, in the games against Michigan State, Navy, Duke, and Stanford when Allen, Hughes, and Aldridge carried the ball often, the Irish gained significant rushing yardage. Finally, against Georgia Tech, Penn State, Purdue, Boston College, and USC, Notre Dame really didn't attempt many running plays. This is understandable in the Purdue and USC games when Notre Dame was behind and needed to throw to get back into the game. This isn't understandable in the BC game where it was close for most of the contest and highly desirable to keep Matt Ryan off the field.
Looking at the rushing game from a player perspective Allen and Aldridge both averaged around four yards per carry with Hughes averaging closer to five. This ultimately leads to the conclusion that, when Notre Dame used these three backs and ran it often, they were consistent and successful. And this was, in large part, while teams were stacking the box to force the Irish to throw.
The running game was seeminglu unsuccessful due in large part to the inability to gain yardage on third and fourth and short, i.e. when the Irish really needed it. However, looking at these numbers it is baffling why Weis didn't identify this as a strength of the team, develop it, perfect it, and plan his offense around it at the beginning of the season, using it to open up the passing game and control the clock.
John David Booty and the Trojan Offensive Machine
Does anyone else want to be John David Booty? For the second straight year he put up phenomenal numbers in the Rose Bowl despite not making a single difficult throw. He is the next coming of Matt Leinart and Jamarcus Russell, an over-rated quarterback with tons of talent around them to make yards after the catch and in front of them to give them a ton of time. Mark Sanchez, Mitch Mustain, are you ready to be gifted an NFL draft pick?
