Season In Review
The more and more I think about our season the more I think that the reason we didn't win all of our games came down to one fundamental thing: poor offensive line play. I took a look at this year compared to the last and a couple of statistics stood out at me. On defense we gave up significantly fewer yards, mostly in the passing game, and fewer yards per rush. However, the yards per play was up a little bit and the number of plays against us was up slightly which, given the new rules this year to shorten the game, means it was up more than that. On offense, our time of possession was down and, even though our yards per carry were up, our rushing touchdowns (way down) and yards per game were down.
To me this all points to the offensive line. We didn't have a consistent, tough yardage, inside running presence. Due to that our play action passing game wasn't as effective. This manifests itself in several areas. First, we don't control the clock like we did in the past. This leaves the defense on the field for more plays. Therefore, even though they are playing better than last year they are more apt to get tired and therefore more likely to give up big plays. Second, this takes away our ability to play action and go down field. It isn't just that Samardzija and McKnight can't separate from many of the defenders. Without pulling the safeties up with play action we can't really go down field with the ball. We just don't have the athleticism or speed at the wide receiver position unless we get one-on-one coverage with jump balls. Effective play action helps facilitate that.
Finally, opposing defenses know we have to throw the ball. Any team with a decent defensive line can pin their ears back and come after us. This has resulted in more pressure on Quinn and, consequently, more sacks. It has also created serious problems converting third and fourth downs. Third and long and they send the house, third and short and we can't pick up the tough yards with our running game. There is only so many times you can run a QB sneak. Fourth down is more of the same.
Consistent with the thought that you are never as good or bad as people think you are it is certainly true that the offensive line is solely to blame. The absence of a consistent pass rush threat opposite Victor has been one of the true detriments to our defense. Additionally, our linebacker play this year has been some of the worst I have seen. Looking at Brockington's play and then reading people say he has really improved into a meaningful role tells you how bad we are at that position. We don't take on blocks with the outside shoulder, we don't skate and read upfield, we don't turn plays back inside, and we don't know how to read. The absence of physical running by Darius has also been a primary contributor to all of this. Watching the Army game with a couple of friends it was noted how he goes down on the first touch virtually every play. However, after seeing Aldridge miss the simple catch out in the flat I realized how valuable Darius is and why he is still the starter.
LSU Preview
I'm not going to lie folks, LSU is good. In fact, if they had better coaching they would be playing for the national title. I'm not sure what they were thinking hiring Les Miles but LSU has as much, if not more, talent than any other team in the country. And that talent comes in size, strength, speed, and athleticism. Better coaching, more discipline, and the elimination of self-inflicted mistakes would have them undefeated in the SEC and playing for the national championship. Of particular concern is their talent at wide receiver. Bowe and Doucet, have speed to spare. They aren't of the Mannigham and Jarret mold where they are bigger targets and more of possession type receivers with good speed. These guys have top-line speed. At the running back position they use three different guys, all of whom I'd love to have starting for us. Brady Quinn is having a fine year but what about JaMarcus Russell? He completes near 70% of his passes and has an excellent TD to interception ratio himself (26:7). On top of that, Russell is such a physical presence (goes about 260 lbs) that it is difficult to pressure him from the outside as he steps up into the pocket well. And defensively, they might have the best in the country. They are aggressive, fast, physical, and deep. They hit hard, cover well, blitz from all over the field, and stuff the run nearly as good as anyone in the country. At safety LaRon Landry is about as good as they come. This isn't going to be an easy game for us. LSU is really the last team I would want to draw from any of the BCS teams minus maybe OSU.
Offense
The key to us winning this game is several fold. First, protect the football. We can't turn the ball over and win this game. Second, we must take advantage of their aggressive defensive play. This can come in several forms but the one way I think we can primarily take advantage of it is in the screen game and with double move routes on the outside. This means we have to be able to protect Brady. Big surprise, in order to win, our offensive line must play well. Because LSU has such good safeties, they like to play a lot of cover two. The tight end, hopefully Carlson but Freeman if necessary, will be essential to exploiting this down the middle of the field. I think the tight end, along with solid offensive line play, will be the key to winning this game. Ball possession, controlling the clock, and long, meticulous drives (as Weis likes to call them) are key.
Defense
On defense it will be particularly important not to give up the big play. With the speed they have at receiver, particularly Doucet, they can break it pretty much any play and they will run the bubble screens, quick slants, and seam routes in one-on-one coverage to try and create with their speed. They will also use the running back by committee approach to wear us down. I believe the key will be to get them into third and long and get pressure on Russell up the middle. Coming from the outside will only flush him out of the pocket where he may be even more dangerous than as a drop back passer. Additionally, they run a pretty timing oriented passing offense. Disrupting the passing lanes via pressure up the middle and being physical with the receivers at the line of scrimmage will also be significant to success (see blueprint from the Florida vs. LSU game). We didn't do this with USC, let's see if we learned our lesson. Put Zibi up on the line and let him smack them around a few times, let him take the short zone, and give him help over the top.
Special Teams
On special teams it is unlikely we will get a big return. The most important factor here will be not giving something big up to them. Good kickoff and punt coverage will be essential as one little gap and they can spring it for a score. I also wouldn't be surprised to see us go after some punts and/or fake something ourselves. Weis is liable to pull out all of the stops here.
General Comments
To be perfectly honest, this game could be over at halftime with LSU pulling out ahead and just playing keep away and exerting superior athleticism for the second half. They are every bit as talented as any team in the country and are playing in their own backyard. I pray this doesn't happen because I don't want to hear all the media crap if it does. That said, they aren't coached very well and they are certainly prone to their fare share of mistakes. If we can keep it close and not turn the ball over, we can win as anyone can beat anyone on any given Saturday. Even then we will need a significantly poor game of play on their part to keep it close and I just don't see it happening.
LSU 31, ND 24
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