My buddy Vince, for better or worse, loves spreadsheets. He loves everything about them, but especially plotting things. On the way back from the Blue & Gold game he asked everyone in the car which games he thought we were going to win or lose next year. The schedule for next year is as follows:
S 01 GEORGIA TECH
S 08 @ Penn State
S 15 @ Michigan
S 22 MICHIGAN ST.
S 29 @ Purdue
O 06 @ UCLA
O 13 BOSTON COLLEGE
O 20 SOUTHERN CAL
N 03 NAVY
N 10 AIR FORCE
N 17 DUKE
N 24 @ Stanford
Based on this schedule and the response of those four people in the car, myself included, he charted a few things including the number of people that picked each possible record as well as the percent of people who chose us winning each game. These two trends are shown below. The sampling size grew to include some people at work increasing the number to 13 and now it is growing to include the readers of this blog.
Based on this analysis, if you say that the Irish will win each game greater than 50% of people pick them to win, their record will be 8-4 next year. I'd like for whoever is interested to submit a comment to this post and state your predicted record for next year. Please include a win or loss specifically for each game. Submitting a comment is easy, you just have to register first. They ask for an email address but they don't send you junk mail to the best of my knowledge. Vinnie will re-run the numbers and come up with a new summary based on a larger population size.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
ND Football Success Predictions
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6 comments:
I'm going with 9-3. Losses only to Penn State, Michigan and USC. Make it 10-3 after the bowl game.
So much depends on what happens with our O and D...but if I must do this now, rather than in August, I predict the following:
Ga Tech: W
Penn St: W
Michigan: L
MSU: W
Purdue: W
UCLA: L
BC: W
USC: L
Navy: W
Air Force: W
Duke: W
Stanford: W
I picked us to beat UCLA at first, but then swapped it out. 9-3, with things just as likely to go 10-2 or 8-4.
W GEORGIA TECH
L @ Penn State
L @ Michigan
W MICHIGAN ST.
W @ Purdue
W @ UCLA
L BOSTON COLLEGE
L SOUTHERN CAL
W NAVY
W AIR FORCE
W DUKE
W @ Stanford
Sorry it has taken me forever to respond. I feel we are probably in a 9-3 range this upcoming year. This is how I see it:
GT: Win
PSU: Loss
MICH: Loss
Purdue: Win
UCLA: Win
BC: Win
USC: Loss
NAVY: Win
AF: Win
DUKE: Win
STAN: Win
I see us having problems early with an inexperienced QB, O line, and set of receivers. I think all of these games will be close (thanks to our much improved D), but that we end up losing back to back v. PSU and Michigan. The only other loss I see is USC (they are still too talented), and while BC and UCLA will put up fights, I think we will find ways to win and it will build our confidence moving forward.
I don't see us losing to any of the last 4, as Weis has proven we beat the guys we should.
I think this schedule should be good for our young guys as well. It is definitely easier than recent years and should help them build confidence and experience quickly.
I'm just posting this because Pilch told me to...i have no informed prognostication to make. that being said, I would be completely happy if ND went 3-9 with wins over Michigan, BC, and USC.
The way of things in 2007:
Tech: W
PSU: W
UM: L (blowout)
MSU: W
Purdue: W
UCLA: L
BC: W
USC: L (blowout)
Navy: W
Air Force: W
Duke: W
Stanford: W
BCS Bowl: L
Gator Bowl (or any other): W
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