So Anthony has been nice enough to add me as a writer on his blog. I thought I would spend my first commentary updating everyone on what I am seeing/hearing on the position battle front. Here is what we are seeing so far this fall:
Quarterback: Weis has announced to the press that he will not let anyone know who the starter will be until Georgia Tech. This is definitely not surprising. From what I can tell, this remains a three way battle, with Sharpley and Jones the most likely to play against Tech. I have a feeling Weis may start the year using both of these guys in different situations (I am sure he will settle on one guy by year end). I think Clausen sits early, perhaps because of his elbow (still no idea how serious that is, but he hasn’t thrown hard in front of the media…. Again, take that for what its worth), perhaps to preserve his confidence, or perhaps to lend experience to the tough part of our schedule. Stay tuned, this one will be debated until the first game.
Running Back: This is going to be a really fun year to watch this year. Travis Thomas has something to prove and has supposedly looked superb this fall. James Aldridge is also gaining confidence and getting his step back. Freshmen Armando Allen and Robert Hughes have also impressed, with Allen showing his speed and ability to be a difference maker and Hughes proving to be the biggest, most physical back in the stable. Junior Jabbie, the spring game star, is also one still in this mix. Honestly, Darius Walker leaving opened the door for a great spring/fall competition and these guys have all stepped up. Mike Haywood claimed that all five would play in some capacity (see special teams for a few) against Georgia Tech. I think this could prove to be the deepest backfield we have had in years. If these guys can build off of their immediate experience, I think some combination of these five will not only be more exciting, but more productive than Darius last year.
Fullback: Asaph Schwapp is back and seems to be about 99%. Last year’s injury v. Penn State seemed to be holding him back in spring practice, but his confidence and physical play appears to have returned this fall. Luke Schmidt will definitely see the field this year and offer a changeup to Schwapp’s style. Schmidt is taller and faster than the typical fullback and will provide a different look at the position. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lining up with Schwapp in the backfield in some situations.
Wide Receiver: During spring practice I claimed that the wide receivers would surprise this year. I am standing by this statement and truly believe that these guys will overachieve. David Grimes and George West appear to be the two starters entering the season, and while they may not look like Samardzija and McKnight, I think they will be solid. Remember that Weis saw a lot of success with small, disciplined receivers in New England. Also, D.J. Hord is back and is rumored to be showing the speed that made us think he was going to be a key contributor prior to his achilles injury. Also, freshman Duval Kamara brings a much needed big body to the field. He is going to be dangerous red zone weapon and really has shown the most natural hands on the team this preseason. Robby Parris is the second biggest body on the team and should be a solid contributor as well. Add in Gallup Jr., Jackson and Golden Tate (another freak athlete who is switching positions but will find his way on the field this year) and there is no lack of depth or talent in this group. Again, watch for these guys to surprise.
Tight End: John Carlson is back and should be the ultimate safety weapon for whichever QB is in there. Expect to see a lot of Konrad Reuland on the field as well as Will Yeatman in our 2 TE sets. Both guys have developed nicely and should contribute this year (I am hearing specifically that Reuland will have a breakout year). Mike Ragone, the stud freshman recruit, is still small and needs to build up his frame a bit, but could see time early because of his speed. Weis has made a huge point this fall in pointing out speed and eluding to his desire to use it this year.
Offensive Line: This is going to be an overly young group this year. Paul Duncan and Sam Young should serve as our starting tackles, Mike Turckovich and Dan Wenger should serve as our starting guards and John Sullivan will anchor the line at center. Get used to a rotation here though as offensive line coach John Latina is expecting to use eight guys here this year (three tackles, three guards, two centers) to keep people fresh and maintain flexibility. This strategy hasn’t been used during the first two years of the Weis regime, due to lack of depth. We are starting to see the recruiting classes of the past few years come to fruition here. While this group will have its growing pains, I would bet that they will be significantly improved over last year (especially in the run).
Defensive End: Trevor Laws will anchor the left side of our line. His move to the outside should actually be a good thing in my opinion. Playing in the trenches the last few years has put him against a lot of double teams and limited his pass rushing ability. Expect to see him build on his past success on the outside. Past Laws, this position remains a question mark. Dwight Stephenson should start on the right side, but Paddy Mullen and Kallen Wade will also see some time this year. Don’t be surprised to see Andrew Nuss play in some situations as well. Even though the freshman is moving over from the offensive line, he is a man child and I can see Brown wanting to get him on the field.
Defensive Tackle (Nose Tackle): This is another position where there are question marks. Patrick Kuntz will start here and has looked good this fall. However, while he is lean and fast, he is definitely undersized. Ian Williams looks the part and has also impressed, so expect to see him on the field as well. Sadly, we still lack depth here (especially after the Chris Stewart experiment failed) and the D line could prove to be a weakness this year.
Linebacker: I am actually really excited about this crop of LB’s. Toryan Smith and John Ryan will start on the outside and look like beasts. These guys are much bigger and more physical than in past years (thanks to the 3-4 switch and recruiting). Maurice Crum will take one of the inside spots this year (he was the most underrated player on our team last year in my opinion). Scott Smith, Anthony Vernaglia and freshman Kerry Neal will battle for the other spot. Also, watch my darkhorse Brian Smith here. I love watching film on this kid and think he is going to be a very good back. He could see some playing time here and impress.
Defensive Back: We should be looking much better here this year. We are building some awesome depth across all of the DB positions. Tommy Z is back and has a chip on his shoulder. I wouldn’t bet against him being back to his old self again as the shoulder is good again and he has lost some of the weight that slowed him down last year. David Bruton will be a force at safety as well and has really built up a bit while maintaining his speed. Ray Herring and Kyle McCarthy (along with freshman Harrison Smith) will provide needed depth here. At corner, Terrail Lambert and Ambrose Wooden are back. I think Lambert will prove to be a solid cover guy this year, as he improved a great deal last year. Wooden reminds me of Brock Williams in the fact that he has the stats but just can’t seem to put it all together. Raeshon McNeil and Darrin Walls will see a lot more of the field this year as well. Munir Prince will be fun to watch develop here, as a lot of smart people feel he has a better chance of utilizing his unique speed on the D side of the ball. Unfortunately, Gary Gray (freshman recruit) who was supposed to play early is out for the year. To give all of you guys an idea of how far we have come, Leo Ferrine, another cornerback, played quite a bit in nickel packages two years ago. This year he is third string. There is a ton of young talent here.
That should fill you in on what I am seeing and thinking at all of our positions. There is no question we are getting more talented. It should be a blast to watch us play this year and if we can gain experience and make it through the early part of our schedule relatively unscathed, this could be a BCS team. That said, I do think 8-4 is realistic. I am sure Anthony will add his opinion and would like to hear what the rest of you are thinking as well.
Final thoughts: Recruiting is still looking great this year. We still need to grab a killer wide receiver (Michael Floyd would do nicely) and maybe one more offensive lineman (Trevor Robinson). Past that, I feel like the team did a superb job, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If Corwin Brown can coach like he can recruit, things are looking up. Ok, look forward to your comments.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Fall Insights
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2 comments:
I wish I shared David's optimism. I love ND football and I want nothing more than to spend the fall sporting a smile from ear to ear. The odds, however, are just so badly stacked against us... regardless of who looks good and how we perceive summer camp to be going.
The fact is that we have no tangible evidence that this inexperienced team can win 8 games. This is a simple statement based on the fact that we don't know anything about how any of these players will perform in real game situations. At least last year, we knew what we could expect from most of the starting 11 on both sides of the ball. Look at this year, we only know about the game performance capability of a handful of (assumed) starters on both sides of the ball. Offense: Travis Thomas, James Aldridge (limited data and mutually exclusive with T. Thomas), Sam Young, John Sullivan, Paul Duncan (limited data), David Grimes, John Carlson. Defense: Trevor Laws, Dwight Stephenson (limited data), Maurice Crum, Anthony Vernaglia, Tom Zbikowski, Ambrose Wooden, Terrail Lambert.
Who is the glue that holds this offense together? Not TT because I think we can expect running back by committee. Is it John Sullivan? Does he have leadership qualities that you want to hang your season on? Most likely, the glue will be John Carlson. Hopefully he took notes from Brady on leadership. I hate to think that this year it will be one of those situations where everyone is looking at the QB for answers ("Help us." "Save us." "Win this game for us.") and we're going to have a QB who looks like a deer in headlights with an expression that says, "Who, me?"
The demise of our season can be hung directly on the quarterback position unless Uncle Charlie is even more of a wizard than I already think he is. We've got a primma-donna freshman quarterback whose arm is not even healthy enough to play in the first half of the season (this is my presumption and opinion ... I am entitled to my opinion). By that point, we will have already lost at least 4 games, possibly 5; with Clausen available for the first time against USC ... talk about baptism by fire. In the first six games, we've got Sharpley and Demetrius Jones. Sharpley, who you could count on to hand the ball off nicely to the running backs and who can probably throw a fine 3-yard slant rout short of the first down. Jones, who, all in one player, carries the opportunity for both monumental success (read that as scramble for a first down on 3rd and 19) and monumental failure (read that as interceptions, fumbles, overthrown wide open receivers). We know absolutely nothing about either of these quarterbacks which means that assuming that we will "be fine" or "they'll do OK" is an infamous mistake. They are equally likely to do fine or be terrible and hoping with all my might doesn't tip the scales in the optimistic direction.
What about the train wreck at the place kicker position? We've got a roster of kickers who are more likely to get their ass kicked in pillow fight than kick a field goal from the 15-yard line. How have we not recruited a top kicker in years? If the season goes how I think it will, we'll be running the ball and if the defense fares well, we'll be in low scoring, close games. We have no kicker to rely on or act as a source of confidence for our offense.
On defense, I at least share some optimism because I think so highly of coach Brown. At least there, we're got returning proven veterans and we've got a system that might suit the abilities of our personnel. Perhaps Minter tried too hard to fit round pegs into square holes. I think the defense will keep us in games unless the defensive line is so terrible that our best opponents with strong OL's and running games will run all over us.
My expectation is to loose five of the first six games, but I don't expect to be blown out. I expect that our defense will keep it close and I expect that if Sharpley sees most of the snaps, we'll be punting on 3rd down nearly all the time (that's a hard way to win) and if Jones sees most of the snaps, we'll be in games until the end when Jones fumbles the ball away or turns it over on a poor throw interception. We have no kicker to bridge the gap and pick up the slack, which means even if the games are close, we will not be able to get over the hump and actually win them... just loose by a close margin.
Pat, first of all thanks for the thoughts. I definitely appreciate the alternative point of view and think there is a lot of merit in your arguments. However, I am a little more confident and let me share why.
You make the comment that we have no tangible evidence that this inexperienced team can win 8 games. I don’t disagree with you that there is no proof. That said, I honestly believe we will be more talented at a lot of positions across the board (especial O-Line, in the backfield and in the secondary). I think our defense will keep us in a lot of games and as our offense matures, it should be able to carry its load. The last four games (Navy, Air Force, Duke and Stanford) should be four wins for us. Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, and Boston College are all winnable games. Assuming we win 50% of those, we are at 7 wins. Wins at USC and Michigan are highly, highly unlikely. However, it is still easy to see how we get to an 8+ win season if our defense steps up, our offense matures quickly and the team gels.
I think this team actually has a strong group of leaders. Defensively, Tommy Z, Trevor Laws and Maurice Crum will stand tall on the defensive side. Offensively, don’t sell Travis Thomas short (he is already a known leader) even if he isn’t getting 90%+ of the carries. Also, John Sullivan and John Carlson will be strong voices on the offensive side of the ball. I know the traditional QB voice may not be strong early, but that should be fine. There are enough guys on both sides of the ball to pick up the slack.
There is no question there are going to be growing pains for whatever quarterback is in place. However, I think Weis has done a masterful job in controlling all three to this point. Sharpley hasn’t been tossed aside and has been given every opportunity to win the job, even with two more talented QB’s behind him. I think he has done the same with Demetrius Jones even in the face of Clausen. With Clausen, he has kept him out of the spotlight (from a media standpoint). The kid has even been overshadowed by other freshman like Armando Allen at this point. All three will be prepped to play and Weis will ride the guy he thinks gives them the best chance to win. You are right in that this alone doesn’t tip the scale towards being “optimistic” or “pessimistic.” However, a more diversified backfield and a more solid offensive line (I really think this will be the case) should help tip this towards a more positive result.
I completely agree with your place kicker argument. Sadly, this looks like a Lou Holtz team from that standpoint. That said, I think Brandon Walker will get the job (he has the most explosive leg) and will hopefully not lose us any games (though I can’t see this not happening).
Honestly, I think we need to keep our heads up. An 8 win season is far from impossible. Thanks again for the response.
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