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Sunday, October 12, 2008

2008 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Seven

Elite Selection Playoff

After another weekend of losses for teams at the top has resulted in the Texas Longhorns emerging as the deserving number one in the ESP (for an explanation go here). The Longhorns sit atop all three ESP components, including the AV computer ranking (see below).



AV Computer Ranking

As mentioned above, the AV computer ranking has Texas in first, followed closely by Alabama. Trailing a bit further are the Oklahoma State Cowboys.



Strength of Schedule

Nebraska has taken over the most difficult schedule spot , followed closely by the Washington Huskies. After playing the toughest schedule in the country last year, Washington is following it up again this season with a daunting gauntlet of teams. Tulsa, BYU, and Ball State (not shown) are competing for the easiest schedule in the country. The Fighting Irish finish week seven with the 52nd ranked schedule. The details of quality wins/losses, adjusted win percentage, and margin of victory aren't shown in the interest of brevity.


Thursday, October 09, 2008

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: Keys To An Irish Win

Saturday Notre Dame takes their second road trip of the year fulfilling their part of a home/away series with North Carolina.

North Carolina head coach Butch Davis has the Tar Heels pointed in the right direction, fielding a talented, albeit young, team. The Tar Heels don’t necessarily impress in the statistics columns, but have four wins and only a single loss to go along with a top 25 ranking. Relying on opportunistic play, nearly half of North Carolina’s points have come off turnovers and special teams.

Despite losing the time of possession battle by nearly six minutes a game, the Tar Heels average over 30 points a game, mostly winning the second and third quarters. Combined that with a defense giving up under 20 points per game and you have the recipe for 4-1.

On offense a strong receiving corps is led by seniors Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks. Both have the ability to stretch the field and Tate is also a dangerous return specialist. North Carolina is strong inside the red zone converting 55 percent of their appearances into touchdowns and 75 percent into scores. Additionally, the offensive line has only surrendered six sacks through five games.

On defense the Tar Heels frequently drop seven and rely on a stout front four to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Having seven defenders in coverage has worked well, as the defense leads the nation with 12 interceptions on the year. Despite success in other areas, the defense has been generous in the red zone, allowing 53 percent of opponents’ opportunities to result in touchdowns and 84 percent in points.

Against such an opportunistic team Notre Dame must protect the football and play well on special teams, but the remaining keys to winning are more subtle.

Offense

1. Patience, patience, patience.

The Notre Dame offense must exercise patience, both in play calling and execution. The Tar Heels have an opportunistic defense that rushes four, drops seven into coverage, and forces opposing offenses to consistently execute to move the ball down the field.

Offensive coordinator Mike Haywood and quarterback Jimmy Clausen must take what the Tar Heel defense gives. Notre Dame has a tendency to take shots down field, evident by the fact that less than nine percent of the offensive plays have resulted in over 44 percent of the total yards. Against a defense that keeps everything in front of them, this won’t work well.

Additionally, it will take consistent execution, and a lack of mistakes to move the ball into scoring position. Clausen can’t force things and must continue to improve checking down to short routes. Hopefully the turnovers and mistake-prone play of the Michigan State and San Diego State games are gone for good.

2. Win the one-on-one’s.

The Irish offensive line has been exceptional protecting the quarterback this season. However, North Carolina’s defensive line will be a stiff test. The Tar Heels’ front four are big, athletic, and strong. Since there won’t be a lot of blitzing, pass protection will come down to winning matchups with the defensive line.

3. Score in the red zone.

It seems like an obvious key to winning (and it is), but the “bend but don’t break” defense North Carolina employs is an ideal match-up for an offense that lives on the big play. If the Tar Heels prevent big scores the Irish will be forced to work on a short field when they reach the red zone. Against a defense that drops seven there will be precious few windows in the passing game.

Notre Dame must prove they can run the ball in order to loosen up the defense and score points. A vertical passing game doesn’t work with little real estate to stretch the field. Additionally, the Irish must be competent in the kicking game. Otherwise, moving the ball into the red zone will be for naught.

Defense

1. Defend against the long ball.

For the first time all year the Irish do not have a distinct advantage matching up with the opposing receivers. North Carolina has at least two down field threats and they like to use them.

It will be critical for the Irish defense to get home early on blitzes. There will be one-on-one matchups down the field and Notre Dame’s secondary won’t win them all. When North Carolina calls a max protect pass to take a shot, the Irish must pressure the quarterback.

2. Force one-dimension.

North Carolina isn’t exceptional running or passing the ball. If the Irish defense can take one of these two away, it will be a huge advantage. Conversely, if Notre Dame’s defense allows the Tar Heel offense to continually mix in the run and pass, they could be in for a long day.

3. Don’t give any help.

While the Irish defense has committed very few penalties in 2008, the ones they do commit are remarkably untimely. The Tar Heel offense lives off momentum, not consistency. Giving first downs via penalty only adds fuel to the fire.

Additionally, Notre Dame has been able to force opponents into third and long a very high percentage of the time, only to allow a big play to convert the first down. Against North Carolina this must be remedied.

In short, the Notre Dame defense must make the Tar Heels work for everything, yards, first downs, and points. They cannot help the opposing offense by making mistakes of their own.

Summary

The Irish do not match up particularly well with the Tar Heels, especially offensively. The North Carolina defensive game plan is well suited to prevent scores from a team that cannot run the football and has a poor place kicking game. Turnovers and special teams should play a large factor in the outcome of this contest.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Cardinal News and Notes, Irish Style

What To Do With A Lead?

Three times in the 2008 season the Irish haven’t put the game away. Against Michigan an early lead led to the Wolverines chewing yards and committing countless turnovers to preserve an Irish victory. Notre Dame was lucky the Boilermakers abandoned the run and committed remarkably untimely penalties. This week the Irish defense and special teams allowed a fourth quarter rally that nearly cost them the game.

An early lead is great, but only if you know how to protect it. The Irish have yet to close out a game in compelling fashion. With the lead, Notre Dame cannot control the ball with the running game and frequently give possession back to the opponent. It would be wise to continue airing it out, at least until something resembling a rushing attack is found.

Well, It Was Unbalanced

It took three drives of Stanford ramming it down Notre Dame’s throat before the defensive staff made the necessary adjustments to slow the Cardinal rushing attack. I say slow, not stop, because the Irish defense didn’t stop the run all day. Only a large lead and penalties forced Stanford to go to the air to play catch-up.

Stanford came out firing, using unbalanced line formations to isolate an offensive tackle on the Irish defensive ends and it worked to perfection. Against the under-sized front four Stanford ran the ball at will. It wasn’t three and four yard gains. It was seven and eight.

It is puzzling that the defensive coaching staff would take so long to make a rather rudimentary adjustment.

Presumably, the Irish staff didn’t want to expose another area of the defense. But wouldn’t it be more prudent to make Stanford beat you throwing the ball? All year they have proven they can move the football by running it. Rather than waiting to adjust to the Cardinal ground game, isn’t it more advantageous to make quarterback Tavita Pritchard prove he can beat you?

Even without defensive adjustments, the Irish linebacking corps played very poorly. Stanford ran to the unbalanced side of the line an overwhelming majority of the time. It wasn’t complicated, but it was effective. And Maurice Crum and Brian Smith failed to react quickly to relatively slow developing plays.

Emotion To Start

The questions abound. Why does it take comments from an opposing player to generate inspired play? Why does the emotional state of the Irish depend on actions of the other team? Why do Pat Kuntz and company need negative statements directed at them to finally reach the quarterback? And why is head coach Charlie Weis satisfied with this being the most fired up he has seen the team? Isn’t his job, at least partially, to have his players ready to play against every team? Shouldn’t Weis be able to manufacture motivation for the Irish?

Putting Out An A.P.B. For A Kicking Coach

One of seven. That’s what kicker Brandon Walker is for the year. Granted, only one attempt has come within 40 yards but that was a 31 yard attempt Walker missed against Purdue.

And the kicking woes didn’t just start this year. Last year the Irish converted field goals at a rate of less than 50 percent. This included 0 of 2 between 30 and 39 yards, 1 of 5 between 40 and 49 yards, and 0 of 1 beyond 50 yards.

Walker has the distance, that isn’t the problem. It’s concentration, confidence, and technique. A capable kicking coach should be able to solve this problem.

It won’t take long, perhaps even this coming weekend, for the Irish to lose a contest because of their inept kicking game.

Tell You What, I’ll Give You A Head Start

The Irish might as well give opponents a head start before the snap. In the shotgun Notre Dame has passed the ball an overwhelming majority of the time. With two backs the Irish have run the ball an overwhelming majority of the time. Only in the Ace-Trey formation has offensive coordinator Mike Haywood consistently mixed the run and pass.

Part of the reason spread offenses are so deadly is because of their ability to be balanced running the ball out of receiver-heavy formations. The formation spreads defenders sideline-to-sideline and creates lanes for running backs to pick up big chunks of yardage.

But a less obvious reason for the big offensive numbers posted by teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, etc. is their lack of formation tendency. These teams would just as soon run the ball out of a more obvious passing formation than pass out of a more obvious running formation.

Haywood needs to take notes. Defenses are keying in on the Irish. In fact, one time Saturday, the Stanford sideline yelled pass before center Dan Wenger even snapped the ball.

Man, Where Was This Offensive Line Last Year?

It is truly remarkable, and should not be understated, how far the offensive line has come since the 2007 season. The unit has gelled and is much more cohesive than any time last year. This is most apparent in the pass protection where the Irish on are on pace to surrender just over 14 sacks on the year.

Think about it, 14 sacks on the year. Many years that’s likely good for tops in the country.

But the Irish do lack proficient run blocking. And it will lose a game for them if it isn’t corrected.

Pass blocking is largely about playing together as a unit. One missed assignment leads to a breakdown in protection, i.e. it is primarily important that the offensive linemen understand the blocking scheme and work together. As such, a tremendous amount of practice time and many repetitions are needed to perform well.

As far as scheme goes, run blocking is much more forgiving. Paving the way for running backs is less about working as a unit and more about winning one-on-one battles up front. If a lineman misses his assignment it doesn’t always result in a poor run play, particularly if the play is away from him.

But if a lineman loses his one-on-one battle with the defender the play can easily falter. The
Irish off-season saw every offensive linemen gain size and strength, presumably to begin winning the one-on-one battles needed to generate an effective running game. So far this season, sans Purdue, it hasn’t shown up on the field.

The offensive line wins one-on-one battles when they engage the defender. The problem lies in each individual putting himself in a position to properly take on the assigned defender.

This leads to the plausible conclusion that a disproportionate amount of practice time is being spent on pass protection. Coming off an abysmal performance in 2007 where the Irish offensive line gave up 58 sacks, it isn’t unreasonable to think the dramatic improvement is the result of a large focus in practice.

Additionally, the Jon Tenuta led defense likely helps give the Notre Dame offense exotic blitz looks in practice that help prepare them for the relatively vanilla packages they see in games. Equally likely is a scenario where the Irish offensive line isn’t challenged in practice by a relatively weak defensive front.

If this is the case, Weis must devote more practice time to the running game.

A Budding Career

Quarterback Jimmy Clausen continues to improve, not just from last season, but also from his first game this year.

Clausen has had
two consecutive career days racking up gaudy numbers. His understanding of the offense is readily apparent in his pre-snap adjustments. He has pinpoint accuracy, and is spreading the ball around without forcing throws.

While there is still improvement needed in his post-snap reads and progression (isn’t there always?), Clausen is far ahead of where Brady Quinn was at the same point in his career.

Where is the rush defense?

Perhaps more alarming than the woeful running game is the inability to stop the run. The former is tolerable with the talent at receiver and quarterback and will continue to work until the Irish offensive line proves incapable of protecting Clausen. The latter is a huge liability and will lose a close game for the Irish. Notre Dame’s defense was fortunate to get three Cardinal turnovers early, helping the offense build a three score lead.

Being so inept in both areas is inexplicable and intolerable. Giving up
6.5 yards per carry to a Stanford team with far less talent is criminal. The credit must go to the Cardinal players. Much like Michigan State, the Irish defense didn’t match their intensity.

The Game Lasts Four Quarters Guys

For three quarters the Irish played fairly solid football. After seeing the Cardinal run the ball effectively for three consecutive drives the Irish defensive staff (finally) adjusted to Stanford's unbalanced line and slowed the ground game.

However, in the fourth quarter Stanford began moving the ball at will once again. And the defense wasn’t the only culprit, the Irish offense was unable to generate first downs. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s defense suffered from a lapse in intensity and concentration. Both contributed to let Stanford back in the game.

Why So Loose?

Similar to
the Purdue game, Notre Dame’s secondary gave too much cushion on the outside for much of the day. The defense is going to blitz, opposing offenses are going to get rid of the ball quickly, and tighter coverage is required to stop the short, quick passing game. Double moves aren’t a threat provided the Irish defenders get home.

You Stay Classy Notre Dame

What happened at the end of the game is uncalled for. This isn’t about any specific player and it isn’t about the skirmish. Having fire, playing to the whistle, being “nasty,” are all part of the game. Grouping together and jumping up and down in unison while facing the opponents after a victory is not part of the game, it is classless and unnecessary.

Monday, October 06, 2008

2008 Elite Selection Playoff Initial Release

It's that time of year again. That's right, it's week six of the 2008 college football season, time for the release of the Elite Selection Playoff. For those new to this college football ranking system a detailed explanation can be found here.

Elite Selection Playoff

First out of the gate are the Oklahoma Sooners, largely due to the pollsters (deserved) love affair with this team. The Crimson Tide trail by less than two-hundredths of a point and sit atop the AV computer ranking.


Strength of Schedule

The most heavily weighted part of the AV computer ranking is the strength of schedule. To date, the Washington Huskies have face the toughest schedule followed closely by Nebraska. It is important to keep in mind that the AV strength of schedule is based only on games played through week six, i.e. it does not include every opponent on a team's schedule until the final week of the season.



Margin of Victory

Penn State and Oklahoma have been racking up huge victories over their opponents coming in at one and two respectively in margin of victory.


AV Computer Ranking

Finally, the AV computer ranking (only the top 50 are shown) is led by Alabama followed by Vanderbilt, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. For the Irish faithful, Notre Dame makes their debut at number 34. Their 4-1 record is trumped by the 73 ranked strength of schedule.

Last year Notre Dame's schedule ranked sixth in the country. At the onset of this season it was estimated that the Irish would play the 60th toughest strength of schedule. So far this seems to be very plausible.

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Stanford

It was really a tale of two sides for the Irish Saturday. While Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal 430 (6.4 yards per play) to 343 (5.3 yards per play) yards, the Irish failed to perform well in several of the most important statistical categories.

The usually effective Irish coverage units had mishaps and the return teams did little to help generate field position.

The Irish scored at a 50 percent clip when in the red zone but allowed Stanford to convert all three red zone appearances into touchdowns.

Despite holding Stanford to only 22.2 percent on third down, the Irish only converted 28.6 percent of their own attempts. Additionally, Stanford didn’t need three tries to pick up a first down for much of the day.

This game was certainly won in the turnover battle as Cardinal quarterback Tavita Pritchard threw three early interceptions (Stanford also had a meaningless fumble on the final play of the game). But the Irish protected the ball for the second straight week and capitalized on Pritchard's mistakes. After giving up nine turnovers in their first three games, Notre Dame has surrendered zero in their last two.

Offense

It all starts under center for the Irish as quarterback Jimmy Clausen had his second straight career game. With offensive coordinator Mike Haywood calling passes on about 60 percent of the snaps, Notre Dame seems determined to put the game in Clausen’s hands. Over the last two contests, against porous secondaries, the plan has worked well.

Despite this pass happy approach Notre Dame has even managed to control the ball the past two games, albeit only in the second half. Against Purdue the Irish managed a better than ten minute advantage in ball control. Against Stanford the time of possession advantage dwindled, but Notre Dame still managed to hold a six minute edge.

Clausen threw to seven different targets for 347 yards and three touchdowns, completing 72.5 percent of his passes. The Irish signal-caller turn in an efficient, high-powered, and productive day. Over the past two games Clausen has completed better than 65 percent of his passes for 622 yards and six touchdowns. He has also not thrown an interception through more than eight quarters of action.

For the game Clausen averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 12 yards per completion. For the year he is at 7.3 and 12 yards respectively. Both numbers are dramatically up from 2007. Clausen’s favorite targets Saturday were Michael Floyd, David Grimes, Kyle Rudolph, and Armando Allen, completing at least five passes to each.

Floyd caught five balls for 115 yards (23 yard per reception average) and a touchdown. On the year Floyd is averaging better than 66 yards per game and 15.9 yards per reception. Coupled with Golden Tate’s 79.4 yards per game and 17.3 yards per reception, Notre Dame packs a powerful one-two punch on the outside.

Grimes caught seven passes for 60 yards (8.6 yard per reception average) and Rudolph had a career day hauling in five balls for 70 yards (14 yard per reception average) and a touchdown. Finally, Allen became Clausen’s safety valve, catching seven passes for 66 yards (9.4 yard per reception average). Allen even managed to turn one short route into a touchdown.

With five different Irish players recording over ten receptions on the year, Notre Dame is starting to force defenses to cover the entire field.

The excellent pass protection continued for the Irish against the Cardinal. For the second straight week Notre Dame surrendered only a single sack. For the year the Irish are averaging one sack per game, or one per 34.2 pass attempts. That’s a phenomenal improvement from last year when Notre Dame gave up 4.8 sacks per game, or one per 6.7 pass attempts.

Although not as big-play potent as last week, Notre Dame still turned in seven big plays for 200 yards (28.6 yard per play average). For those out there keeping count, less than 10 percent of the Irish plays went for nearly half of the total offense against Stanford.

However, the Notre Dame offense also moved the ball more consistently than they had since the San Diego State game averaging 3.8 yards per play not counting the seven big plays.

Unfortunately, that is where the good ends and the bad (or really bad) begins.

Notre Dame continues to struggle getting into manageable third down situations. On the day the Irish offense faced third and five or more yards greater than 85 percent of the time. On the year the Irish suffer this fate at a better than 77 percent rate.

This is undoubtedly linked to Notre Dame’s poor third down efficiency. Against Stanford the Irish converted fewer than 30 percent of their third downs. On the year they haven’t fared much better, successfully gaining a first down on only 33.8 percent of their tries.

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. After a break-out performance against Purdue, the Irish rushing attack reverted back to its dormant ways.

On the day Notre Dame recorded only 83 yards rushing on 27 attempts for a paltry 3.1 yard per carry average. Taking out the yards from the single sack, the rushing average peaks to 3.7 yards per carry. However, 23 yards came from a fake punt, bringing the "true" average back down to less than three.

There is no excuse for such an inept running game and in a close game (e.g. Michigan State) this will continue to haunt the Irish.

Defense

The defense played well in some facets of the game and not in others.

Unable to adjust to Stanford’s unbalanced offensive line early in the game, the Irish surrendered 161 yards on 37 carries for a 4.4 yard per carry average. Removing sack yardage tips the yards per carry value to 6.5. In fact, Notre Dame allowed four different Cardinal runners to average better than 4.5 yards per carry.

Only a substantial lead early in the game saved a defense incapable of stopping the Cardinal ground game. More problematic than an anemic rushing attack, the Irish defensive staff needs to find a way to stop the run.

Against Purdue, a team converting better than 90 percent of their red zone tries into points, Notre Dame’s defense buckled down inside their twenty and surrendered points only a third of the time. Against Stanford the Irish gave up a touchdown all three times the Cardinal offense penetrated the red zone.

There were, however, some bright spots. The Irish held the Stanford offense to a 22.2 percent third down conversion rate and forced them into five or more yards on 77.8 percent of the third downs. The primary problem was that Stanford faced only nine third downs.

Notre Dame’s defense gave up a relatively modest 115 yards (33.5 percent of the total offense) on five big plays for a 23 yard per play average. Nearly all of these big play yards came on the ground (four runs for 88 yards). However, even without the big plays Stanford matched the Irish per play average of 3.8 yards.

For the year the Irish are allowing more than 42 percent of opposing teams’ yardage to come from big plays at an average of 29.6 yards per play and 159.6 yards per game.

The Irish also allowed Pritchard to complete 64.3 percent of his passes for 182 yards. On the day, Pritchard was good for a 6.5 yard per attempt and 10.1 yard per completion average. Those attempt and completion averages aren’t jaw-dropping values, but they are hardly respectable.

Notre Dame did, however, have a productive day pressuring Pritchard as the Irish registered a sack for the first time since their week one game against San Diego State. On the day the Irish logged five quarterback sacks for 48 yards. For many, a shade over one sack a game isn’t what was expected from a Jon Tenuta led defense. Hopefully the performance Saturday is an omen of things to come.

Leading the way on the defensive side of the ball was a determined and disruptive Pat Kuntz. With a fumble return, interception, two sacks, and one batted ball, Kuntz had an incredible stat line in the box score.

Following behind Kuntz were Irish safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton. McCarthy logged 14 tackles (seven solo), one tackle for a loss, and an interception. Bruton turned in nine tackles (5 solo) and an interception of his own. Both McCarthy and Bruton have played extremely well all season.

Special Teams

A Notre Dame team typically solid in coverage units wasn’t on Saturday. For much of the day the Cardinal intensity on special teams far exceeded that of their counterparts.

On the year Notre Dame is allowing only 6.2 yards per punt return and 15.7 per kickoff return. Saturday those numbers exceeded 11 and 22 respectively. In particular, the Irish allowed Stanford to have excellent field position via a 38 yard punt return in the fourth quarter and gifted the Cardinal excellent field position another time with a fair catch interference penalty.

The poor coverage units showed as the Irish averaged only 32.2 net yards per punt and 40.2 yards per kickoff. Both values are down from season averages of 39 and 47.2 respectively. Against a good running team a short field is a liability and Stanford proved this.

Notre Dame also averaged only 18 yards per kickoff rerturn and failed to successfully execute a single punt return.

But the most disappointing aspect of special teams is the continued problems in the place kicking game. On the year Notre Dame is now one of seven on field goal attempts. Despite only one attempt coming from fewer than 40 yards, a 14.3 percent field goal conversion rate is unacceptable and easily could have cost the Irish the game.

Summary

Notre Dame was victorious due to a decisive advantage in turnover margin. However, statistically speaking, the Irish did not play a complete game. If not for early Stanford turnovers and big plays that built a lead, a porous Irish run defense would have likely paved the way for a defeat.

The absence of an effective run game and inability to stop the run is a precursor to another loss for the Irish. It is inevitable that Notre Dame will be unable to successfully control the ball and run out the clock. Equally probable is another close game where the defense wears down and yields to a powerful running attack late in the contest.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Notre Dame vs. Stanford: Keys To An Irish Win

The Fighting Irish take on the Stanford Cardinal Saturday. Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh has injected a dose of energy into the program, maximizing the potential of his players.

The strength of the Cardinal is a potent rushing attack and the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Through five contests Stanford has rushed for 168.4 yards per game. Additionally, their top three backs are averaging greater than 5.3 yards per carry. This comes against competition that allows approximately 129 yards rushing per game at a rate of 3.8 yards per carry.

For the second straight week the Irish will face a very proficient red zone offense. The direct result of an effective running game, Stanford’s offense is converting 92 percent of red zone attempts into scores.

With an aggressive, blitzing defense similar to that of Notre Dame, Stanford has also recorded 15 sacks.

But that is really where the good ends and the problems begin.

This season, Stanford has passed for only 140 yards per game. The defense is allowing opponents to convert on third down nearly 50 percent of the time and surrenders points 88 percent of the time they enter the red zone. Finally, the Cardinal defense has allowed nearly 260 yards per game through the air.

For Notre Dame the game plan must feature a combination of things from the
Michigan State and Purdue games.

Offense

1. Score early and often. While the Irish won’t face a running back of Javon Ringer’s caliber, Toby Gerhart and Anthony Kimble are more than capable runners who form a nice one-two punch for Stanford.

Stopping the run has been problematic for the Irish, giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the year. The strategy of the Irish offense must help mitigate this problem on defense.

As such, it is important to build a substantial early lead. This will force Stanford to abandon the run, instead relying on their anemic passing attack.

2. Be a control freak. Notre Dame must control the football and win the time of possession battle. Offensive coordinator Mike Haywood needs to abandon the vertical passing game on third down in favor of a more consistent, possession offense. This will keep the Irish defense fresh against the Cardinal rushing attack.

3. Be en vogue. The Irish obviously aren’t a run-first team. Against Purdue Notre Dame showed they could open up the run with the pass. It will be advantageous for Notre Dame to use their spread offense to open up the field and get running back Armando Allen space.

In conjunction with this, it is paramount for the Irish to be efficient in their execution. Against a team that turns virtually every red zone appearance into points, the offense must change field position and prevent turnovers in Irish territory.

Defense

1. Sell out. Notre Dame’s defense must shoot the gaps on first down and sell out against the run. The strength of the defense is defending the pass. The Cardinal struggle to execute in their passing game and frequently allow quarterback Tavita Pritchard to be pressured. Getting the Stanford offense in long down-and-distance situations will go a long way to utilizing Notre Dame’s biggest asset.

2. Force Pritchard to win the game. Pritchard is tasked with managing the game, being proficient, and providing relief for the Cardinal rushing attack. He isn’t challenged to win the game. Commit to stopping the run on first down, put the game in Pritchard’s hands, and go after him. Offensive tackle Chris Marinelli has provided all the ammunition needed for an already aggressive Irish defense.

3. Continue the red zone defense. Last game Purdue entered converting 90 percent of their red zone tries into points. Despite surrendering 462 yards of offense, the Irish defense only allowed Purdue to convert one of three red zone tries. This bend-but-not-break defense will be an asset against the Cardinal offense.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Notre Dame vs. Purdue: News and Notes

The Irish CAN Run The Football

For the first time in a long time Notre Dame ran the football consistently and effectively. Not only did this help the passing game via a balanced offensive attack, it also led to improved red zone efficiency and a substantial edge in time of possession.

Naturally, the improved production in the running game was partially due to better offensive line play. In particular, much maligned tight end Kyle Rudolph turned in a drastically improved blocking performance. But the real reasons for success are far more subtle.

Against Purdue the improvement in the run game was four fold.

First, offensive coordinator Mike Haywood showed a commitment to running the football. This was primarily evident in his patience as a play caller, sticking with the run after not seeing much production early on in the game.

Second, the balance of the passing game opened up the run. Passes over the middle of the field to Rudolph helped keep the Purdue linebackers guessing.

Third, Haywood used different types of running plays and blocking schemes up front. Many have been
begging for this for quite some time.

Haywood called designed counters and more quickly developing run plays for most of the day. A few zone stretch plays snuck their way in, but the Irish mostly ran right at the Boilermaker defense.

Haywood primarily stuck with a zone blocking scheme, but focused on sealing the edge and gave the Irish offensive line the angles with his play calling. For the first time this season the play calling utilized the talents of the offensive personnel.

Lastly, running back Armando Allen burst on the scene with a career day. He continues to run with a tough, physical style. Allen also showed much more patience than he ever has.

For the first time in his young career his speed was a strength, rather than a weakness. He used his vision to see the play develop and accelerated through the hole when it opened. He even cut against the grain a few times for big gains.

It’s Not Great, But We’ll Take It

Haywood still has a long way to go as a play caller but he did show signs of improvement Saturday.

As mentioned above, there was much more patience sticking with the ground game. An effective rushing attack
doesn’t always show up early in the game. Hopefully Haywood has learned this and will continue to be patient in the future. Haywood also kept the Boilermaker defense guessing with a good mix of runs and passes.

Most importantly, the halftime adjustments made by the offensive staff were tremendous. In addition to finding the best formation(s) to get Notre Dame’s best eleven offensive players on the field, the defense was on its heels the entire second half.

There are, however, still negatives.

The fade seems to be the only play in the red zone. Against less talented teams when there are favorable matchups this may work. But more talented defenses will take it away and the Irish must develop an alternative to putting points on the board inside the twenty.

Notre Dame goes deep far too often on third down. The Irish faced third and long
more than 70 percent of the time against Purdue but that doesn’t excuse quarterback Jimmy Clausen and Haywood from taking shots thirty yards down the field. The play calling needs to evolve in order to move the ball down the field more consistently.

While not used many times against Purdue, the screen game is still suspect for the Irish. This is coupled with an absence of a running threat in the shotgun and little deception of play intent with offensive formations obviously catered to running or passing. Add it all up and Notre Dame has few weapons to slow a powerful pass rush. If the defense knows you’re throwing the ball their job is much easier. This must be rectified in the future.

Speaking of tipping off the defense, Clausen’s pass audibles are completely transparent. Not only do greater than 90 percent of his play changes result in a pass, the change in depth of the running back (from the line of scrimmage) all but screams pass protection. The Irish must work to hide these indicating factors.

Better and more talented defenses (and defensive coordinators) will force the Irish offense to be one-dimensional. Continued unpredictability in play calling and perfection in one facet of the offense will go a long way in cultivating an identity and giving the players something to come back to when they need to generate yards.

The Turtle Does Not Win The Race

Lately head coach Charlie Weis’ offense has been slow to start. In addition to not playing a complete game, this allows less talented teams to stay in the game and good teams to build a lead. Neither is desirable and the latter is deadly for a young team.

The Irish tried to prevent a slow start with a no-huddle, spread offense but it proved ineffective. Two drives into the game things looked pretty bleak and only excellent halftime adjustments paved the way for a big third quarter.

These slow starts are driven mostly by inconsistent execution and must be a focus going forward.

Is Clausen’s Jersey Still Clean?

Once a
pre-season dream, good protection of Clausen is now a reality. While Clausen’s decision making and Allen’s pass protection are improved, it all starts up front with the play of the offensive line.

Statistically, Notre Dame has
improved dramatically protecting the passer. Once the culprit of killed drives, the Irish have minimized sacks and made the game much more manageable. This has allowed the offense to spread the field and has been the catalyst for a more vertical passing game.

But the passing game is just the beginning.

Coming off a disappointing performance against Michigan State, the offensive line looks to have regained its footing. The emotion, toughness, and physicality that was lacking against the Spartans was present Saturday and led to more than 200 yards rushing. While the Irish still struggle to engage at the second level, improvement sealing the edge sprung Allen on many long runs.

“We’re Eating A Lot Of Hamburger But You Really Want To Be Eating Steak”

After seeing first hand in 2007 (and hearing all off-season) what a Jon Tenuta led defense can do to a quarterback many Irish fans are disappointed in the sack production of the Notre Dame defense. While the aggressive, blitzing defensive scheme has caused pressure on the quarterback, only one sack has materialized.

Naturally, the first question for Irish fans is “should we care?” Despite the lack of sacks Notre Dame has repeatedly pressured opposing quarterbacks, forced errant throws, and batted down multiple balls at the line of scrimmage. It seems like, at least partially, the defense is doing what it is designed to do.

The short answer is yes. Against a more talented offense the Irish will pay for risking single man coverage or rolling up the zone. It might not happen in the immediate future, but it’s coming. It will most certainly happen when Notre Dame makes a trip to the Coliseum but also potentially when they face North Carolina.

The defense’s inability to get to opposing quarterbacks is primarily due to four things.

One, Notre Dame lacks the pure pass rushers up front to generate consistent pressure without sending two or three more players. There is talent on the defensive line but most of it is young and inexperienced. This leaves the secondary vulnerable to one-on-one man coverage or a zone rotation.

Second, like the offense, Notre Dame’s defense has personnel tendencies that hamper its success. Harrison Smith and Sergio Brown are rarely used in coverage, spending much more of their time coming off the edge into the opponent’s backfield. Conversely, defensive backs David Bruton, Kyle McCarthy, Terrail Lambert, Gary Gray, and Raeshon McNeil rarely blitz.

Third, Tenuta has been a part of the defensive staff for less than a year. This is mostly evident in execution. Often the timing of the Irish defenders is poor and the defensive line frequently struggles to take the correct angles and generate the appropriate space for the blitzing members of the secondary and linebacking corps.

Applying pressure in the passing game is much more difficult than executing a run blitz. The latter requires simple gap responsibility. The former requires precision in timing, rotating, and disciplined coverage. More time might be needed to execute Tenuta’s scheme at a high level.

Fourth, opposing offenses counter Notre Dame’s pressure scheme with a quick, three-step drop or shotgun, short passing game. This is the correct call for the opposition but the Irish are not adjusting appropriately or taking advantage of turnover opportunities.

Far too often the secondary is playing loose in coverage. This results in space for opposing wide receivers making tackling more difficult, allowing yards after the catch, and sacrificing opportunities for interceptions. Tighter secondary play will likely result in improvement in all three areas.

If the Irish defense isn't getting to the quarterback, production from the blitz in the form of turnovers would be a nice consolation. In the second half against Purdue Notre Dame began to do this but were unable to catch the football.

What A Freakin’ Day

Not only did Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen have a
career statistical performance, he showed what the future holds for Notre Dame football.

Clausen is starting to live up to the hype. His arm strength is no longer a question, his touch is rapidly improving, and his accuracy is unquestionable. This was never more evident than on two completions to wide receiver David Grimes.

The first came on the opening offensive play of the second half when Clausen zipped a perfectly placed ball on an out route across the field and between two defenders. The second came on fourth and seven at Purdue’s thirty yard line. Clausen took the snap, Grimes got a quick release, and the ball was delivered in perfect stride for a touchdown.

Like always, there is still room for improvement. Clausen must adapt to avoiding the pass rush by stepping up into the pocket. He must continue to improve in his progressions, stop staring down receivers, and check-down. He must be more judicious deciding when to go down field. And he must refine his play action mechanics.

But Saturday was a huge step in the right direction.

Learning On The Job

If the Michigan State game showed
Weis is still learning, Saturday showed he is coming up the learning curve.

Multiple young players were gaining invaluable experience by getting meaningful minutes of playing time. This builds depth. Weis didn’t do this 2005 or 2006 and it helped contribute to the disaster of a season in 2007.

Weis faced a significant challenge at halftime. The Irish had come off a disappointing loss to the Spartans and sputtered offensively for much of the first half. The team came out firing on all cylinders in the third quarter. Weis successfully navigated the psyche of his team and motivated them to play better in the second half.

Now Weis faces another challenge. Much like life after the Michigan win, the team must remain even and keep working to improve. Weis must accomplish this with a team who has experienced very little success.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Purdue

Against Purdue the Notre Dame offense morphed from talented players into a gelling team. The Irish put up 38 points, even managing to successfully execute a snap, hold, and kick on a field goal attempt.

The Irish offense played its first complete game of the season, dramatically improving red zone efficiency, committing zero turnovers, and maintaining their respectable third down efficiency from the previous week.

The defense, however, didn’t fare quite as well. Despite holding Purdue to a season low in red zone efficiency the defense surrendered far too many yards and allowed the Boilermakers to convert on nearly 43 percent of third downs.

Offense

Where to start?

The Irish offense amassed 476 total yards for their best output since Notre Dame faced Navy in 2006. Departing from their previously one-dimensional passing attack, Notre Dame employed a balanced performance gaining 275 yards through the air and 201 yards on the ground on their way to averaging a season high 6.3 yards per play.

The Irish gained 23 total first downs, 13 rushing and 10 passing, with play calling at a near even split. Notre Dame averaged five yards per rush and 7.9 per pass attempt, both season highs.

Another season high was the six rushes of more than 15 yards. In three prior games, the Irish had zero, one, and one rush over 15 yards. Notre Dame’s offense also had five big pass plays result in 153 yards and a 30.6 yards per play average, both season high values.

The offense appeared to move the ball more consistently against Purdue than any previous opponent, mostly due to the emergence of the running game. However, the Irish had 11 big plays for 265 yards, averaging 24.1 yards per play. This comprises 55.7 percent of the total offense, the largest percentage of offense to come from big plays this season.

Notre Dame converted three of four red zone tries into points. The red zone appearances weren’t the gifts of turnovers as they were in the Michigan game, so the increased red zone efficiency is likely the result of
improvement in a previously nonexistent running game. The same running game also led to the first decisive time of possession victory for the Irish, who held the ball for 10 minutes more than their opponent.

On third down the Irish built off the Michigan State game and remained consistent, successfully converting nearly 43 percent of the time. However, the Irish continue to put themselves in long yardage third down situations. Notre Dame faced third and five or more yards 10 of their 14 (71.4 percent) attempts. On the season the Irish have faced more than five yards on 75 percent of their third downs.

The Irish offensive line continues to protect quarterback Jimmy Clausen, giving up only a single sack attempt against Purdue. This is an extended good trend for the Irish as they are only surrendering one sack per 32.8 passing attempts. After ranking dead last in sacks allowed last season, the Irish have moved to 22 in 2008. Offensive line coach John Latina should be commended.

Jimmy Clausen had the best day of his young career, completing better than 57 percent of his passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns to three different receivers. For the game Clausen averaged 13.8 yards per completion (compared to 9.1 yards per completion in 2007), a testament to Notre Dame’s consistent ability to throw the ball down the field.

Clausen’s favorite target on the day was freshman Michael Floyd. Floyd hauled in six passes for 100 yards, good for a 16.7 yard per reception average. It is becoming increasingly evident that teams cannot simply double-team Golden Tate. With freshman Kyle Rudolph (three receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown) beginning to become a target in the middle of the field, Clausen has quite a few weapons.

On the ground Armando Allen had a breakout game, rushing 17 times for 136 yards and a touchdown. That’s good for an absurdly high 7.9 yards per carry. Fellow running back James Aldridge came in for mop-up duty and gained 35 yards on eight carries (4.3 yards per carry).

The enthusiasm should be tempered, however. While it was a great offensive output Notre Dame did this against an extremely porous Boilermaker defense. Coming into the game Purdue was surrendering 192.3 yards rushing (4.9 yards per carry) and 234.7 yards passing (9.8 yards per completion) against rather pedestrian competition

Excluding the yards per completion average, the Irish offense really just did what everyone else had already done.

Defense

The defense did not perform nearly as well as the offense.

The Irish defense gave up 462 yards to the Boilermakers, 359 of which came through the air. Notre Dame’s defense even allowed Purdue to average more yards per play than the prolific offense of the Irish.

Purdue’s offense had two big runs and four big passes for 193 yards at 32.2 yards per play. They averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt, 6.5 yards per passing attempt, and 12.4 yards per completion.

The 6.1 yards per carry were the highest allowed by the Notre Dame defense this season. Ditto the 12.4 yards per completion. About the only bright spot of the pass defense was allowing Boilermaker quarterback Curtis Painter to complete a relatively modest 52.7 percent of his pass attempts.

The defense also allowed Purdue to convert on almost 43 percent of their third down attempts, a season high. And this happened despite Purdue’s offense facing third down and more than five yards 85.6 percent of the time. Had the defense been able to get the Boilermaker offense off the field the time of possession advantage would have been even greater.

Once again, Notre Dame did not record a quarterback sack on the day. Despite some pressure, a few quarterback hurries, and some batted balls, Notre Dame’s aggressive, blitzing defense has little to show for its high-risk style of play. The Irish rank dead last in the country in sacks. Against better teams the Irish may pay for their gambles.

The Irish defense did, however, buckle down in the red zone. Purdue entered Saturday’s contest converting 90 percent of their red zone appearances into points. Notre Dame held them to just one score in three red zone tries.

David Bruton, Pat Kuntz, Maurice Crum, freshman Robert Blanton, Kyle McCarthy, and Brian Smith all notched five or more tackles for the Irish. Blanton added a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown as well.

Special Teams

The Irish notched their first field goal of the season on 41-yard attempt by Brandon Walker.

Notre Dame also held Purdue’s dangerous kickoff returners to only 13.9 yards per return while turning in 26.3 yards per kickoff return. That’s good for over 12 yards of net kickoff difference in Notre Dame’s favor.

The Irish continue to perform well in the punting game, netting 42 yards per punt.

Summary

Through four games Notre Dame has shown significant statistical improvement from a deplorable 2007 season. It remains to be seen, however, if they can continue to build on success and maintain consistency in their play. To date, all but two of Notre Dame’s touchdowns have been scored by freshmen or sophomores. This speaks to the youth present on the team.

The Irish are 3-1 in large part because they have protected Clausen and improved their vertical passing game. However, minimizing turnovers, maintaining few penalties (41 yards per game), and a respectable running game are needed to continue winning.

Inconsistent play will cause future miscues, and this team is too young to overcome a host of mistakes, especially those that are self-inflicted.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Keys To An Irish Win

Notre Dame gets the Purdue Boilermakers at home Saturday. After opening the season slow against San Diego State then coming strong on against Michigan, the Irish took a step back last week against Michigan State.

On paper, the Boilermakers shouldn’t be as stiff of a challenge.

Through three games against Northern Colorado, Oregon, and Central Michigan the Boilermakers are giving up 427 yards per game. That isn’t exactly a gauntlet of powerhouses.

In particular, Purdue is allowing 192.3 yards per game on the ground. That’s good for the bottom quarter of college football and is the definitive weakness of this football team. The defensive line is relatively big, but the linebackers are on the smaller side and both units are in the bottom half of what Notre Dame will face this season.

The pass defense, however, has been respectable. On the year, Purdue has given up only three touchdowns through the air and 234.7 yards passing per game. They have also held their opponents to only 9.8 yards per completion.

In other words, the defense hasn’t given up a lot of long pass plays.

The defense has also been fairly effective on third down, only allowing 33 percent of opponent’s tries to be successfully converted. Opposing offenses with scoring opportunities have done fairly well, scoring on 69 percent of red zone possessions. But the Boilermakers have only allowed 40 percent of the red zone trips to result in touchdowns.

On offense it is the Curtis Painter and Kory Sheets show as the duo leads a fairly balanced attack resulting in over 33 points per game. Painter is having a modest year by his own standards, averaging just over 250 yards per game passing. He has been efficient, though, completing just under 60 percent of his throws and averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.

Sheets is averaging over 20 carries and 117 yards per game, but the most impressive statistic is his 5.7 yard per carry average and long run of 80 yards.

If there is one thing Purdue's offense does well it has to be red zone efficiency. The Boilermakers enter Saturday’s contest converting 90 percent of their red zone tries into points. Two thirds of those points are touchdowns.

On any average day the Irish would beat the Boilermakers a high percentage of the time. But Notre Dame always gets their opponent’s best game, so average likely won’t cut it for the Irish. Notre Dame will need a better offensive performance to match Purdue’s scoring. Obviously that will take improved red zone efficiency and elimination of costly turnovers, but the keys to winning are far more subtle.

Coming off a disappointing loss to the Spartans, this game will likely determine the direction of the remainder of the season.

Offense

1. At every opportunity create and take advantage of mismatches. Notre Dame’s biggest advantage in this game is their talent. The offense must create one-on-one opportunities to make plays and trust that their talented skill position players will make them.

The offense can’t negate this talent advantage by giving away the play before the snap or lacking creativity in the running game. Purdue’s defense has struggled to defend the run against opponents that don’t use a conventional rushing attack, teams that run out of obvious passing formations. Spread the field and get Armando Allen the ball in space.

Get Golden Tate and David Grimes in the slot, matched up with linebackers and safeties. Spread the field and force Purdue to go five deep in the secondary. Get Michael Floyd with single coverage down the field. And set up the big play rather than taking blind stabs at it over the course of the game. The Boilermaker defense hasn't given up many big plays in the passing game, the Irish offense can't afford to force the issue and risk a turnover.

2. Run it red. The anemic running game for Notre Dame has been well documented. The Irish don’t need to run the ball for 150 yards to win this game. They do need to run the ball well inside the twenty yard line to improve their atrocious red zone efficiency. Leaving points on the field won’t cut it in this game and an ineffective rushing attack is largely responsible for a 36 percent red zone scoring efficiency.

3. Change the field position. Help the Irish defense by making Purdue work to get into the red zone, limiting their scoring opportunities. The Irish offense must minimize three-and-out’s and eliminate turnovers in their own territory. Manageable third down distances are also advantageous as Notre Dame’s 32 percent third down conversion rate is largely a result of facing third and more than five yards over three quarters of the time.

Defense

1. Less is more. To date the Irish blitzing game has recorded only one sack. The high risk, high reward scheme has worked fairly well through three games but the Boilermakers present a unique challenge. With Purdue Notre Dame will get a blend of two offenses they have already faced.

The Boilermakers passing game will be similar to San Diego State, their running game similar to Michigan. Attempting to pressure a veteran quarterback like Painter will not force the same errant throws Aztec quarterback Ryan Lindley made.

Likewise, blitzing can take players out of position and cause problems with Sheets on the ground. This happened with Sam McGuffie against Michigan, leading to multiple big runs. The Irish defense is best served keeping everything in front of them and forcing Purdue to consistently execute to move the ball down the field.

2. Keep Purdue out of the red zone. The Boilermakers are remarkably efficient inside their opponent’s twenty so Notre Dame must prevent them from getting there. Stopping the big play is a start, but-as stated above-not playing a high risk defensive scheme and getting help from the offense will also be needed.

3. Tackle better. It was on the Christmas wish list and has been true in weeks one, two, and three. Against Purdue good tackling will be needed, but for a different reason. The Purdue offense is designed to get the ball to the skill players in space. After this they rely on one-on-one matchups and poor tackling to create yardage. The Irish must take this away from them.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Notre Dame vs. Michigan State Game Recap

Notre Dame shot itself in the foot multiple times Saturday, ultimately leading to their own demise. Coming off an emotional win against Michigan head coach Charlie Weis suspected emotionless play to be a problem, but he was hardly able to prevent it from handicapping Notre Dame’s offensive strategy.

Costly turnovers, combined with an inept rushing attack largely due to uninspired offensive line play, led to a 23-7 victory for the Spartans.

The turnovers left points on the board for the Irish and gifted points to Michigan State. The complete lack of a running game resulted in a decided disadvantage in ball control and a tired defense at the end of the contest.

Even without the turnovers, Notre Dame did not deserve to win. It may have been in a closer game, but the time of possession heavily favored the Spartans. And in a close game tired defenses are a liability.

Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio knew this and rode running back Javon Ringer’s 39 carries and 201 yards to victory, controlling the clock until fatigue gave way to gaping running lanes in the fourth quarter.

The Irish would be wise to learn the value of an effective running attack from their opponents.

Offense

Offensive coordinator Mike Haywood is having a forgettable start to his career as a play caller. The Irish offense misses Weis’ playcalling prowess and Notre Dame is beginning to
feel the impact. Haywood doesn’t think one or two plays ahead and doesn’t set up plays to stretch the field.

His approach is far more “throw it up against the wall and see what sticks” than clever planning. Whether it be via formation or down-and-distance tendencies, there is simply no creativity or intent to deceive the opposing defense.


Despite a glaring need to get short third down distances, play calling to achieve manageable third downs is a thing of the past.

Screens and draws must be used to slow an aggressive defense like Michigan State employed Saturday. Once a staple of Weis’ offense, the former wasn’t executed, the latter wasn’t used enough.

Additionally, there were multiple instances when a double move was practically begging to be called. There were also ample opportunities to execute such a play off a similar, previously used play call.


Presumably this would allow quarterback Jimmy Clausen to get the ball down the field in a manner other than trying to take advantage of a one-on-one matchup. Haywood didn’t call it once.

Despite a desire to the run the ball, Notre Dame has suffered through the better part of 15 games with a coaching staff seemingly unable to craft an effective, first-strike running scheme.

This was never more evident than against Michigan State.


The Irish were not unwilling to run the football. They were simply unable. Haywood wanted to run the ball to control the game and keep Ringer off the field. This was a good strategy and paramount to success.

But the first six offensive plays were runs that went for nothing. After that Notre Dame only called a designed run
once every five plays. It isn’t difficult to stop a one-dimensional offense, no matter what dimension it employs.

Spreading the field and throwing the ball was the best option to win. The coaching staff made the appropriate adjustment during the game. The problem lies in the fact that Notre Dame is unable to run the football proficiently and consistently. And there is no excuse. In fact, it is altogether embarrassing.

The Irish have the
talent to run the ball. In this game (and in most games) Notre Dame held a distinct size advantage up front. But a lack of determination by the offensive line, poorly designed running plays, and a lack of creative play calling all contributed to a woeful ground game.

There is little-to-no misdirection, the motioning tight end frequently gives away the direction of play, and no effort is made to utilize the specific talents of the three running backs or the offensive line. The staff has recruited two bigger, pounding running backs and beefed up the offensive front, but still frequently challenges the players to employ a finesse running game that takes too long to develop.

It’s like asking to fit a square peg into a round hole.

The alternative, asking a young team to consistently spread the field and execute a short drop, hot read, sight adjustment passing game, isn’t reasonable.


Admittedly, the difference between this game and 2007 was increased efficiency in this area as the Irish capably moved the ball at times. In 2007 the Irish didn’t give themselves scoring opportunities, now they simply aren’t converting them.

But relying on such a high level of precision execution with a young offense isn’t smart coaching. This is especially true when all the pieces needed for an effective running game are already on the roster.

This is no more evident than in Notre Dame’s red zone efficiency. The Irish are 4 of 11 in the red zone, potentially leaving 21 to 49 points on the field. Most of this poor efficiency is due to inconsistent execution on a short field, where going deep with the ball isn’t possible due to limited real estate. An effective running game would certainly help mitigate this problem.

Of course, the offensive line certainly didn’t help.

Poor play calling aside, there was no passion up front for the Irish. Notre Dame’s offensive line was timid and hesitant, not aggressive and dominating. The Irish got no movement off the ball against a defensive front they vastly outweighed. Lack of emotion threw the game plan right out the window.


Michigan State deserves all the credit. They took a page out of the 2007 defensive playbook against the Irish and followed the recipe well: shut down the run, play press-man on the outside, and blitz Clausen all day. Notre Dame never managed to match their intensity.

Clausen continues to struggle protecting the ball as well, averaging two interceptions per game. While some of his throws are excellent, he is still inconsistent, doesn’t move up into the pocket to evade the pass rush, and throws deep balls up for grabs rather than putting it where only his receiver (or the ground) can get it. There were several times Saturday when Clausen missed big play opportunities because he didn’t throw the ball accurately down the field.

Freshman tight end Kyle Rudolph continues to be an enormous liability in the running game and a modest contributor in the passing game. It is puzzling why he remains on the field. With junior Will Yeatman likely off the team for his second alcohol related offense, junior Luke Schmidt must step up and be a force in the running game.

There were, however, some bright spots for the Notre Dame offense.

The Irish converted better than 46.2 percent of their third downs, up from the 25 percent rate they entered the game with. This came despite continued poor execution on first and second down as Notre Dame faced third and long on over 90 percent of their chances.

The pass blocking continues to be an area of improvement for the Irish. Even though Clausen was sacked three times and pressured numerous others, the Irish protected him well for most of the day. It’s difficult to stop a defensive front that knows you are throwing the football. Notre Dame is only giving up one sack per 32 pass attempts, a dramatic improvement from 2007.

Golden Tate continues to be a playmaker and should only blossom more with time. He has a “never quit” attitude and the talent to do special things with the ball in his hands. It is puzzling why he doesn’t get it more often. Freshman Michael Floyd also had a very productive day.

But the overall offensive performance was lackluster and disappointing. Significant strides must be made to be consistently effective moving the ball in the future. Being one-dimensional handicaps the players and gives a distinct advantage to the defense. Cutting out drive-killing turnovers would also be beneficial.

Defense

The defense played very well against the Spartans, allowing quarterback Brian Hoyer to complete less than 50 percent of his passes and containing Ringer to 2.9 yards per carry if you take out his three big runs. Most of Michigan State’s offensive production came in the waning moments of the game when the Irish defense ran out of gas.

As the defense wore down Ringer became more effective and without a substantial lead (or one at all) Notre Dame couldn’t force Hoyer to win the game. As a team, Notre Dame didn’t do what it
needed to do to win. As a unit, the defense held up for as long as it could.

The poor recruiting along the defensive line in Weis’ first two years is starting to show. The lack of depth along the front 3/4 ensures that the Irish must sell out to stop the run. Against Michigan State it was a matter of getting tired. Against a two-dimensional offensive football team it will lead to big plays in the passing game.

Besides Terrail Lambert, the secondary played well throughout the day. Other than a few mistakes Notre Dame tackled well and rotated into coverage. Raeshon McNeil has certainly begun to erase memories of Darrin Walls with his excellent play and safety Kyle McCarthy continues to be a sure tackler.

The linebacker play for Notre Dame continues to be a strength of the defense. A few years removed from some of the worst linebacker play in years, assistant head coach Jon Tenuta has morphed Maurice Crum and Brian Smith into a potent combination of speed, aggression, and talent. Smith, in particular, has the potential to be an All-American.

The Irish focused on shutting down the run against Michigan State and did so for most of the day. The problem typically came on third down. Despite forcing the Spartans into third and long on 90 percent of their tries, Notre Dame allowed Michigan State to convert on 40 percent of their tries.

Even with a high blitz rate Notre Dame still only has one sack on the year. Against Michigan State many of the blitz’s were aimed at filling the gaps to stop the running game. But for all the hoopla surrounding Tenuta’s attacking and aggressive defensive scheme, it certainly hasn’t been productive in the sack column.

As discussed above, the fatigue of the defense was directly tied to the inability to run the football and control the clock. This was a problem against Michigan in week two but a comfortable lead prevented it from coming back to hurt the Irish. It will continue to be a problem in close games if Notre Dame’s offensive staff fails to develop a running game.

Special Teams

Special teams are a mixed bag for the Irish. While the coverage units are solid, the return teams are inconsistent. The field goal unit hasn’t attempted a reasonably easy opportunity, but having problems with the snap and/or hold on half of the attempts don’t provide a lot of confidence.

Summary

This game is evidence that Weis is still learning how to do his job. He is learning the college game, he is learning to be a head coach, and he is doing both at the same time.

It seems like four years would be enough to get up that learning curve. But the success of years one and two never really forced Weis to do it. This isn't an excuse, it is reality. Weis has shown a willingness to change, but that might not be enough.


The excuses are running out for Weis. While still young, the Irish are plenty talented. They don’t need to win every game but they should at least be competent and competitive. The defense has improved from an already respectable unit in 2007 but the offense is still struggling even though it is Weis’ area of expertise.

The primary problem on offense seems to be Weis’ cerebral approach to the game. In the NFL this approach is an advantage, you take what the defense gives you and creatively scheme each week.

But in college it is often times more advantageous to simply impose your will and dictate the game. Teaching an offense to react to opposing defenses requires ample practice time and physically and mentally mature players. Weis is still struggling with
these differences.

This is apparent in his week-to-week offensive game plan and inadequacy at motivating his players.

The Irish see-saw between game plans based on the weaknesses of opposing defenses. This creates a lack of continuity among the offensive players. Sometimes constant change creates more problems than the changes solve.

Rather than practicing multiple things each week, the Irish would be better served perfecting one facet of their offense and building around it. That doesn’t mean the Irish can’t tweak their offensive game plan based on the opposition. It just means the team needs an identity, something to build on, something the offense can always come back to when they need yards.

Motivation is also a factor. For the third time in four years Weis correctly identified passive play as a potential obstacle heading into the game against Michigan State.

In 2005 the Irish came off an emotional win over a highly ranked Michigan squad only to start slow and climb an uphill battle against the Spartans. In 2006 Notre Dame suffered a devastating defeat to the Wolverines before traveling to East Lansing and needing a monumental fourth quarter comeback to beat Michigan State. This season the Irish followed a big win over Michigan with a pathetic first half of offensive production.

Each time Weis was unable to solve a problem he correctly anticipated. It’s difficult to motivate players when you’re constantly teaching the mental aspects of the game as the key to winning. It de-emphasizes the importance of physical play. Increasing the physicality of practices helps, but a finesse-based offense doesn’t.

Game planning and motivating aside, the most disturbing aspect of Weis’ offensive approach is his staff’s inability to develop an effective running game. There are multiple, compelling benefits of a proficient ground attack and it is a necessary ingredient to consistently beat good football teams and compete for national championships.

It is difficult to imagine such an experienced offensive coaching staff not understanding the importance of running the football. It is also difficult to imagine said coaching staff being unable to develop an effective rushing scheme. But one or the other will have to give for Weis to succeed in the long term at Notre Dame.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

Against the Spartans, Notre Dame returned to the form they showed in their first game against San Diego State.

Turnovers and red zone efficiency improved from week one to week two for the Irish but poor third down efficiency continued to plague Notre Dame’s offense. While third down efficiency improved from 25 percent against San Diego State and Michigan to 46.2 percent against Michigan State, it was not enough to overcome the lapse in turnovers and red zone efficiency.

Three remarkably untimely turnovers left points on the field and gifted points to the Spartans. This ultimately led to the Irish loss although an embarrassing rushing output also contributed to their demise. Throw in only two trips to the red zone, not converting points on either of them, and you have a recipe for failure.

Notre Dame has yet to perform for an entire game in the three statistical categories that most strongly correlate to winning: turnovers, red zone efficiency, and third down efficiency. And despite only averaging 40 yards in penalties a game, many of them are poorly timed resulting in stalled drives or giving the opposition a first down.


Offense

About the only bright spot on offense was the increased efficiency on third down.

Despite needing to improve dramatically on down and distance management
, the Irish faced third and five plus yards on more than 90 percent of their third downs. That value is up from already high numbers of 58.3 against San Diego State and 75 percent against Michigan. That Notre Dame was able to convert 46.2 percent of their into first downs in the contest Saturday is a miracle.

Notre Dame averaged 4.1 yards per play, down from 5 and 4.7 in weeks one and two respectively. The Irish gained 258 total yards with roughly 94 percent coming through the air. Offensive coordinator Mike Haywood called 22 runs and 41 passes but the run/pass play selection was really more skewed.

After running on its first seven plays for virtually no gain, Notre Dame only called ten running plays for the remainder of the game. Compare that to the 41 passes thrown by quarterback Jimmy Clausen and the Irish only ran the ball once every five plays after the first two offensive series.

To date the Irish are averaging fewer than 290 total yards per game and a paltry 78 yards per game on the ground.

Removing big plays (runs greater 15 yards, passes greater than 20 yards) from the yardage totals shows how much the Irish rely on the their down field passing game rather than consistent offensive production.

Notre Dame has had ten big plays on the season, with eight of them coming through the air. Those ten plays are worth 316 yards for a 31.6 yard per play average and over 105 yards per game. That translates into nearly 37 percent of the total offense coming from the vertical passing game. Obviously, the Irish running game is nearly non-existent.

Against Michigan State the running game was even more anemic. Notre Dame ran the ball 22 times for 16 yards, a 0.7 yard per carry average. Even subtracting the three sacks of Clausen the Irish only averaged 2.0 yards per carry. That is hardly respectable given the size advantage of Notre Dame’s offensive line.

Speaking of sacks, the Irish surrendered their first three of the season. While Michigan State only sacked Clausen three times, they pressured and hit him numerous others. Even so, Notre Dame is only giving up one sack per 32 passing attempts, a solid improvement over the one sack per 6.7 passing attempts of 2007
.

Clausen completed 58.5 percent of his attempts for 242 yards, but had his lowest yards per completion average of the season at only 10.1 yards per completion. His yards per attempt also dipped from 7 yards in the first two games to 5.9 yards against Michigan State. This was mostly due to the Irish offense’s inability to consistently throw down the field.

Clausen continued to throw interceptions against Michigan State, notching picks five and six on the year. At one pick per 16 pass attempts, Clausen is not on a good pace for the season. At his current rate he will finish even with 24 touchdowns and interceptions.

Receivers Michael Floyd and Golden Tate continue to impress. Floyd nabbed 7 balls for 86 yards and a touchdown while Tate caught 5 passes for 83 yards.

For the second straight game Notre Dame was beaten in the time of possession, with Michigan State holding nearly an eight minute edge. This showed late in the game as the Irish defense struggled to contain Spartan running back Javon Ringer.


Defense

For over three quarters the defense played well. Despite facing a short field twice, the defense only surrendered thirteen points and kept Notre Dame in the game. The inability to get off the field on third down and lack of running game by the Irish offense to control the time of possession doomed them in the end.

Against quarterback Brian Hoyer and the Spartan passing game, Notre Dame more than held their own. Despite giving up 5.5 yards per attempt and 11.9 yards per completion, the Irish allowed Hoyer to complete only 46.2 percent of his passes for a paltry 143 yards.

On the year Notre Dame is only surrendering just over 215 yards per game through the air, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53.1 percent of their passes.

The problem was defending Ringer and the running game for four quarters. Ringer ran for 201 yards and two touchdowns against the Irish at a rate of 5.2 yards per carry. However, over 47 percent of his yardage came on three plays. Without those big runs Ringer averaged a modest 2.9 yards per carry. The Irish defense really contained him, save three long runs.

Once again Notre Dame got solid play from its secondary and linebackers. Linebacker Brian Smith racked up ten tackles-one for a loss-and forced a fumble on a very aware play. Smith looks to be headed towards All-American status in the future. Veteran linebacker Maurice Crum also added eight stops for the Irish.

Safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton notched nine and ten tackles respectively. McCarthy continues to be one of the better tacklers in the country.


Special Teams

The special teams improved in one area but regressed in the others.

The Irish punt coverage unit continues to be solid, giving up only one return for ten yards despite punting five times.

But the field goal unit has yet to convert a single attempt. On the year half of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts have been resulted in a poor snap and/or hold.

Kickoff coverage also looked spotty Saturday as the Irish averaged only 36.5 net yards per kickoff. Compare that to Michigan State’s 44 net yards per kickoff average and you get a first down’s worth of field position change.

One good kickoff return and another good punt return gave the Irish respectable averages in both categories but the remainder of the day saw mediocrity in the return game.


Summary

The Irish lost this game with turnovers. However, even without the turnovers Notre Dame hardly played well enough to win. Had it been a closer game down the stretch there is still no guarantee of a win as Michigan State’s ability to run the football, control the clock, and wear down the Irish defense paid huge dividends in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Charlie Weis and his staff would be well served learning a lesson on the importance of ball control from this loss. After all,
the benefits of a solid running game are numerous and the Notre Dame offense is built to run the football.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Notre Dame vs. Michigan State: Keys To An Irish Win

Notre Dame travels to East Lansing this weekend to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Notre Dame hasn’t played well on offense, defense, and special teams for four consecutive quarters, but that is likely what will be needed to produce a win as this is arguably the toughest challenge to date for the Irish.

The game will pit Michigan State’s strength against Notre Dame’s weakness.

Michigan State enters the game rushing for 192 yards per contest and 4.1 yards per carry. Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio is more than happy pounding the ball with stud running back Javon Ringer.

For the season Notre Dame has given up four yards per carry to Michigan (124 yards per game rushing) and San Diego State (35 yards per game rushing). The defensive front three/four for the Irish has been fairly weak against the run and at only 278 pounds per man, give up well over 30 pounds to the Michigan State offensive line. It will certainly be a test of size and strength versus speed and quickness.

It is imperative that the Irish negate the Spartan advantage in the ground game. Special teams must continue to play well, giving Notre Dame an advantage in field position and forcing Michigan State to face a long field all day.

The offensive and defensive units must also work together to neutralize Ringer.

Offense

1. Score early and often. The Irish have shown they can go deep in the passing game and be successful as indicated by a better than 12.3 yard per completion average on the season. If quarterback Jimmy Clausen can find Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, and Duval Kamara behind a suspect Spartan secondary it bodes well for the Irish. Getting a large lead early would potentially force the Michigan State offense to get out of their comfort zone and go to the passing game in an attempt to play catch-up.

2. Chew the clock. Against a Michigan stout front seven surrendering less than one yard per carry Notre Dame was able to run the ball relatively effectively. The Irish averaged 3.3 yards per carry even though the Wolverines knew they were trying to kill the clock in the second half. Notre Dame would be well advised to go back to the power running game and keep Ringer off the field.

3. Stay ahead in the down and distance. Notre Dame has been atrocious on third down, converting only 25 percent of their opportunities through two games. Part of this poor performance can certainly be attributed to execution. However, far too often the Irish playcalling has been aggressive on first and second down. This has resulted in third and middle-to-long two thirds of the time. Head coach Charlie Weis said there will be an emphasis on third down playcalling and execution this week, but first and second down are equally as important.

Defense

1. Force Brian Hoyer to win the game. The Spartan signal caller is a capable quarterback in many respects but lacks playmakers at the wide receiver position. If asked to win the game it is unlikely he will be able to live up to expectations against a strong Irish secondary. This task is much easier if the offense can build a substantial lead early.

2. Keep Michigan State in long down and distances. Lock up on the edge, sell out against the run on first down, and force Hoyer to throw on second and third (and long) to move the ball. The Spartan playbook is significantly reduced in size if the Irish can produce these long down and distance situations. If Notre Dame can neutralize the run on first down it will go a long way in helping them win the game.

3. Tackle better. It was true in week one and in week two, but will be even more important this week. Ringer is a back that gets better as the game goes on and as he gains momentum running the ball. Taking him down with the first defender is paramount to success. This was a pre-season focus and should continue to be a point of emphasis for the Irish defense.