Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

Against the Spartans, Notre Dame returned to the form they showed in their first game against San Diego State.

Turnovers and red zone efficiency improved from week one to week two for the Irish but poor third down efficiency continued to plague Notre Dame’s offense. While third down efficiency improved from 25 percent against San Diego State and Michigan to 46.2 percent against Michigan State, it was not enough to overcome the lapse in turnovers and red zone efficiency.

Three remarkably untimely turnovers left points on the field and gifted points to the Spartans. This ultimately led to the Irish loss although an embarrassing rushing output also contributed to their demise. Throw in only two trips to the red zone, not converting points on either of them, and you have a recipe for failure.

Notre Dame has yet to perform for an entire game in the three statistical categories that most strongly correlate to winning: turnovers, red zone efficiency, and third down efficiency. And despite only averaging 40 yards in penalties a game, many of them are poorly timed resulting in stalled drives or giving the opposition a first down.

Offense

About the only bright spot on offense was the increased efficiency on third down.

Despite needing to improve dramatically on down and distance management, the Irish faced third and five plus yards on more than 90 percent of their third downs. That value is up from already high numbers of 58.3 against San Diego State and 75 percent against Michigan. That Notre Dame was able to convert 46.2 percent of their into first downs in the contest Saturday is a miracle.

Notre Dame averaged 4.1 yards per play, down from 5 and 4.7 in weeks one and two respectively. The Irish gained 258 total yards with roughly 94 percent coming through the air. Offensive coordinator Mike Haywood called 22 runs and 41 passes but the run/pass play selection was really more skewed.

After running on its first seven plays for virtually no gain, Notre Dame only called ten running plays for the remainder of the game. Compare that to the 41 passes thrown by quarterback Jimmy Clausen and the Irish only ran the ball once every five plays after the first two offensive series.

To date the Irish are averaging fewer than 290 total yards per game and a paltry 78 yards per game on the ground.

Removing big plays (runs greater 15 yards, passes greater than 20 yards) from the yardage totals shows how much the Irish rely on the their down field passing game rather than consistent offensive production.

Notre Dame has had ten big plays on the season, with eight of them coming through the air. Those ten plays are worth 316 yards for a 31.6 yard per play average and over 105 yards per game. That translates into nearly 37 percent of the total offense coming from the vertical passing game. Obviously, the Irish running game is nearly non-existent.

Against Michigan State the running game was even more anemic. Notre Dame ran the ball 22 times for 16 yards, a 0.7 yard per carry average. Even subtracting the three sacks of Clausen the Irish only averaged 2.0 yards per carry. That is hardly respectable given the size advantage of Notre Dame’s offensive line.

Speaking of sacks, the Irish surrendered their first three of the season. While Michigan State only sacked Clausen three times, they pressured and hit him numerous others. Even so, Notre Dame is only giving up one sack per 32 passing attempts, a solid improvement over the one sack per 6.7 passing attempts of 2007.

Clausen completed 58.5 percent of his attempts for 242 yards, but had his lowest yards per completion average of the season at only 10.1 yards per completion. His yards per attempt also dipped from 7 yards in the first two games to 5.9 yards against Michigan State. This was mostly due to the Irish offense’s inability to consistently throw down the field.

Clausen continued to throw interceptions against Michigan State, notching picks five and six on the year. At one pick per 16 pass attempts, Clausen is not on a good pace for the season. At his current rate he will finish even with 24 touchdowns and interceptions.

Receivers Michael Floyd and Golden Tate continue to impress. Floyd nabbed 7 balls for 86 yards and a touchdown while Tate caught 5 passes for 83 yards.

For the second straight game Notre Dame was beaten in the time of possession, with Michigan State holding nearly an eight minute edge. This showed late in the game as the Irish defense struggled to contain Spartan running back Javon Ringer.

Defense

For over three quarters the defense played well. Despite facing a short field twice, the defense only surrendered thirteen points and kept Notre Dame in the game. The inability to get off the field on third down and lack of running game by the Irish offense to control the time of possession doomed them in the end.

Against quarterback Brian Hoyer and the Spartan passing game, Notre Dame more than held their own. Despite giving up 5.5 yards per attempt and 11.9 yards per completion, the Irish allowed Hoyer to complete only 46.2 percent of his passes for a paltry 143 yards.

On the year Notre Dame is only surrendering just over 215 yards per game through the air, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53.1 percent of their passes.

The problem was defending Ringer and the running game for four quarters. Ringer ran for 201 yards and two touchdowns against the Irish at a rate of 5.2 yards per carry. However, over 47 percent of his yardage came on three plays. Without those big runs Ringer averaged a modest 2.9 yards per carry. The Irish defense really contained him, save three long runs.

Once again Notre Dame got solid play from its secondary and linebackers. Linebacker Brian Smith racked up ten tackles-one for a loss-and forced a fumble on a very aware play. Smith looks to be headed towards All-American status in the future. Veteran linebacker Maurice Crum also added eight stops for the Irish.

Safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton notched nine and ten tackles respectively. McCarthy continues to be one of the better tacklers in the country.

Special Teams

The special teams improved in one area but regressed in the others.

The Irish punt coverage unit continues to be solid, giving up only one return for ten yards despite punting five times.

But the field goal unit has yet to convert a single attempt. On the year half of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts have been resulted in a poor snap and/or hold.

Kickoff coverage also looked spotty Saturday as the Irish averaged only 36.5 net yards per kickoff. Compare that to Michigan State’s 44 net yards per kickoff average and you get a first down’s worth of field position change.

One good kickoff return and another good punt return gave the Irish respectable averages in both categories but the remainder of the day saw mediocrity in the return game.

Summary

The Irish lost this game with turnovers. However, even without the turnovers Notre Dame hardly played well enough to win. Had it been a closer game down the stretch there is still no guarantee of a win as Michigan State’s ability to run the football, control the clock, and wear down the Irish defense paid huge dividends in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Charlie Weis and his staff would be well served learning a lesson on the importance of ball control from this loss. After all, the benefits of a solid running game are numerous and the Notre Dame offense is built to run the football.