Similar to last year (click here), a 2008 Fighting Irish season prediction poll will be conducted on Notre Dame Football Forum. Admittedly, last season’s predictions were a bit optimistic as can be seen here. This season some background information will be provided to aid in the polling process, hopefully producing more reasonable (and accurate) results.
First, a review of the Notre Dame Spring Blue Gold scrimmage can be found here. The Irish made progress in several areas but cautious optimism seems to be a more appropriate expectation than enthusiastic hope. The Irish do, however, face a much more reasonable schedule in 2008. Next season Notre Dame will play San Diego State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Stanford, North Carolina, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Navy, Syracuse, and USC. As discussed here, this slate of teams looks much less formidable than those who lined up across from the Blue and Gold in 2007.
Second, using the Notre Dame Football Forum Elite Playoff Series (ESP) college football ranking system (click here for an explanation of the ESP), a 2008 Fighting Irish strength of schedule prediction was generated. The ESP rated Notre Dame’s 2007 schedule the sixth most difficult in the country, similar to that of Sagarin. Using the 2007 season results of the future 2008 Fighting Irish opponents, Notre Dame should have a strength of schedule ranked approximately 60th most difficult in the country.
The teams with the ESP rated 55-65th most difficult schedule in 2007 were Purdue, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Texas, SMU, Rutgers, Eastern Carolina, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), and Clemson. These teams averaged approximately 7.4 wins in 2007, but SMU brought that average down winning only a single game and could be considered an outlying data point. If SMU is excluded, the remaining teams averaged eight wins in 2007.
Admittedly, assuming any team will replicate their 2007 season results in 2008 is a stretch. Boston College and Michigan alone lose several starters from their 2007 squads making their 2008 season performance predictions a very uncertain proposition. This should merely serve as a starting point by which to gauge the difference in the opponents the Fighting Irish faced in 2007 versus those they will line up against in 2008.
To participate in the Notre Dame Football Forum 2008 Fighting Irish season prediction poll please submit a comment below. List each team Notre Dame plays in 2008 along with a win or loss, i.e. don’t simply stating the number of wins and losses. The results will be tallied, analyzed, and posted in the future.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Fighting Irish 2008 Season Predictions
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Below I have posted my win/loss thoughts and my % certainty on the pick. As you can see, I am pretty confident that we will have a much better year in 2009 v. 2008.
San Diego State Win (80%)
Michigan Win (70%)
Michigan State Loss (55%)
Purdue Win (70%)
Stanford Win (80%)
North Carolina Loss (51%)
Washington Win (70%)
Pittsburgh Win (60%)
Boston College Win (55%)
Navy Win (80%)
Syracuse Win (80%)
Southern Cal Loss (60%)
TOTAL WINS: 9
I think SDSU should be a slam dunk win and I think Michigan is very beatable in South Bend (considering all of the current issues that team if facing, i.e. no quarterback, massive loss of talent, new coach and system). I have MSU as a loss as we always struggle playing in their house and, well, I think we slip up somewhere in there and it makes the most sense to me. Purdue and Stanford should be slam dunk wins. North Carolina is getting decent (they have collected some good talent under Butch Davis) so I have us slipping away there. I think we hold our own until USC where we slip up in LA.
Honestly, I agree with Anthony in that the only team on the field that should have more talent at this point is USC. We should AT LEAST be able to hang with everyone else. USC could even be a wild card w/Sanchez starting and the loss of some talent (ok, maybe a bit of wishful thinking here).
I really don't think we should win less than 9 games this year. Not with this schedule.
W S06 SAN DIEGO STATE
L S13 MICHIGAN
L S20 @ Michigan St.
L S27 PURDUE
W O04 STANFORD
L O11 @ North Carolina
L O25 @ Washington
L N01 PITTSBURGH
L N08 @ Boston College
W N15 @ Navy (Baltimore)
W N22 SYRACUSE
L N29 @ Southern Cal
Result, 4-8 (no bowl game)
Here are my optimistic predictions (with full explanations).
W S06 SAN DIEGO STATE (Spanish for "Saint Diego" State)
W S13 MICHIGAN (is our bit** again)
L S20 @ Michigan St. (booo)
W S27 PURDUE (Purdon't)
W O04 STANFORD (I won't stan(d)for(d) a loss)
L O11 @ North Carolina (too much powder blue)
W O25 @ Washington
L N01 PITTSBURGH
L N08 @ Boston College (but it will be a win for Catholicism)
W N15 @ Navy (Baltimore) (let's hope it's not Opposite Day again this year)
W N22 SYRACUSE (Although "orangemen" strike fear in the heart of many)
L N29 @ Southern Cal (boooooooo)
Overall: 7-5
San Diego State - Win
Michigan - Win
Michigan State - Loss
Purdue - Loss
Stanford - Win
North Carolina - Win
Washington - Win
Pittsburgh - Win
Boston College - Loss
Navy - Win
Syracus - Win
USC - Loss
I like 8-4 like many people will for this years easy schedule. Until I watch us beat BC, it is hard for me to believe we will even though we should be rolling as a team by then. Michigan State is an obvious choice due to there ability to run the football and our poor prospects at D-Line. I would watch out for Purdue as well. They have an experience quarterback that has poise and will soon have most of Drew Brees's records, maybe another tough game for us even at home. As for those horse f*cka's from USC, same thing applies as BC, and that is until we go out and beat them I have trouble objectively predicting that we will.
That being said, depending on injury status and Michigan State's ability to implode going into BC, Navy, and Syracuse we could be on a hot streak especially on offense. Looking forward to the season though as always. AOHFLTND
2008 Irish Season Prediction:
W S06 SAN DIEGO STATE - We should win by 2-3 TDs against a subpar Aztecs team.
W S13 MICHIGAN - No QB, new system, young OL, a-hole coach and payback on the team's mind. All part of the recipe for an ND victory.
L S20 @ Michigan St. - ND's young (yes, we're still very young) stumbles on the road although tape will reveal we should have rolled this team.
W S27 PURDUE - Only Painter returns and he won't be enough. Purdue's recruiting (or lack thereof) is starting to catch up with them.
W O04 STANFORD - Harbaugh can't will his team to victory and this year, the refs aren't in his pocket. ND wins comfortably.
W O11 @ North Carolina - Dogfight, but ND pulls it out. Butch Davis cries tears of agony on the sideline.
W O25 @ Washington - ND adds to TW's farewell tour. Despite what some cowards think, Locker is not enough to beat the Irish.
L N01 PITTSBURGH - A game we shouldn't lose, but the young team will have a down day and McCoy will chew up too many yards.
W N08 @ Boston College - Should have beaten them last year. No Ryan, no problem.
W N15 @ Navy (Baltimore) - Payback in a big way.
W N22 SYRACUSE - These guys are still awful.
L N29 @ Southern Cal - We'll play SC tight, but they're still too stacked for this year.
ND goes 9-3 in 2008. That being said, 8-4 is certainly plausible, and one could even entertain 7-5, but anything less would be a huge disappointment in my opinion.
Scoggins, I expect an explaination for your poor predictions. I hope you are some sort of eternal pessimist, but just spitting out those results without a blurb is not allowed. What say you ?
San Diego State - Win
Michigan - Win
Michigan State - Win
Purdue - Win
Stanford - Win
North Carolina - Win
Washington - Win
Pittsburgh - Win
Boston College - Loss
Navy - Win
Syracus - Win
USC - Win
I would have picked us to go undefeated but I think it jinxed us when I made that prediction last season. BC is the only team I can bare a loss too.
S06 SAN DIEGO STATE(Win)
S13 MICHIGAN(Win)
S20 @ Michigan St.(Loss)-- Hype Machine gets us after two wins
S27 PURDUE(Win)
O04 STANFORD(Win)
O11 @ North Carolina(Win)
O25 @ Washington(Win)--Willingham finds some way to lose this one. Woof Woof Willingham!
N01 PITTSBURGH(Win)
N08 @ Boston College(Loss)
N15 @ Navy (Baltimore)(Win)
N22 SYRACUSE(Win)
N29 @ Southern Cal(Win)--Jimmy C. stays undefeated for his career in the state of California.
Overall 10-2 - Lose in a BCS bowl game(but we gain in the long run valuable practice for the 2009 season and several thousand more books for our library with our BCS payout check.) It really is all about having the most amount of books in your library!
At Andrew's request:
W S06 SAN DIEGO STATE
I think we will squeak by. I think with the amount of youth on our team, it would be easy to envision us coming out the gate with LOTS of rust on. I do think that ultimately we will be able to run the ball and win a low scoring contest.
L S13 MICHIGAN
Michigan owns us. You know it and I know it. It doesn't matter that it's at home. Even with all the changeover Michigan is experiencing this year, they are too well diversified to beat. They are a premier program and they just re-load every year. We are still a few notches below that point.
L S20 @ Michigan St.
If you think they ran the ball well against us last year, just wait 'til this year. State by 2 TD's.
L S27 PURDUE
Experienced quarterback. We would have to out-score them to beat them and I just don't see Clausen leading us to a win an a high scoring contest. He's more likely to lose the game for us if it gets into a barn burner. He will throw multiple interceptions trying to force balls trying to stay in a high scoring game.
W O04 STANFORD
They were laughable last year. In fact our game against them was a comedy of errors. We were laughable too, but we have a year under our belts and I expect our improvement to exceed Stanford's last year over this year.
L O11 @ North Carolina
UNC is closing the talent gap. Their QB had a good year last year, and although he is injured at present, I think he'll be ready for the season and should pick up where he left off. They are an athletic team and well coached. We are a team which will specialize in mental errors and mistakes (thanks to youth and no leadership) again this year... not the recipie for winning on the road.
BYE
L O25 @ Washington
Washington will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year and I bet they'll surprise people this year. Again, a solid QB returning and an angry defense (they were victimized badly this year) with a new philosophy and DC. They showed the potential for greatness against USC last year; USC tried to give the game away but won thanks to superior talent and execution when they needed to have it. Notre Dame may have superior talent but I expect us to lack execution again this year. If we try to give the game away (read Clausen interceptions) Washington will take it.
L N01 PITTSBURGH
Pitt will run on us at will. They are a program on the rise. It doesn't matter that their defense is weak because I don't think our offense will be able to move the ball against even the weakest of defenses assuming that we continue to throw the ball instead of run it. They match up well against us in terms of their offense against our defense.
L N08 @ Boston College
BC will probably become more of a running team this year with the horses they have up front and the fact that Ryan is gone. Their defense is always excellent and they play ND with intensity. They will get after us defensively. On offense they will run the ball, and with the game at home they should beat us soundly.
W N15 @ Navy (Baltimore)
Navy will be essentially dismantled with Paul Johnson gone. Go Irish.
W N22 SYRACUSE
Syracuse is probably as bad as Stanford and I think we can beat Stanford. The game is at ND, not that we have much of a home field advantage, but from what I understand, they are terrible.
L N29 @ Southern Cal
This prediction doesn't even qualify justification.
Result, 4-8 (no bowl game).
SDSU: Win
Michigan: Win
Michigan State: Loss
Purdue: Win
Stanford: Win
NC: Win
Washington: Win
Pitt: Win
BC: Win
Navy: Win
Syr: Win
SC: Loss
This might be the easiest schedule we've ever had--and it's no one's fault. BC, Mich, and others are decimated by graduation.
SAN DIEGO STATE - Win
MICHIGAN - Win
@ Michigan St - Win
PURDUE - Win
STANFORD - Win
@ North Carolina - Win in a close one
@ Washington - We better win
PITTSBURGH - Win
@ Boston College - W
@ Navy (Baltimore) - W
SYRACUSE - W
@ Southern Cal - L
Total Record: 11-1
Bring on another crushing BCS bowl defeat
I think SDSU should be a cake walk. If we don't win this game by more than 3 TDs it may be a bad year for this football team. I agree that UM is very beatable with the current situation in Ann Arbor. People leaving left and right, new system ( which we have seen the impact of that) , and the loss of all the offensive stars should give us a chance to beat them at home. The MSU game I can never figure out. Seems they beat us every year in South Bend and we win every year in East Lansing. So I am going with the tradition on this one. If we don't win the PU game I may stop watching ND football altogether. They lose their top offensive stars and they never have a defense. We should beat them down like we did the first two years under the Weis regime. The Standford game should be another easy win for us - we have better athletes at every position and should control the entire game. While NC has gotten better the past few years I just do not see them as taking the next step many others are. I think ND pulls through but it will be closer than the talent level indicates. Washington is another game that if ND does not win and win big I may stop being a fan. Boston College loses a lot on offense and I don't think will be able to compete with us this year. Should have won this game last year if Weis would have stuck with running game and we have more talent while they have less this year. STICK WITH THE RUN and this game is in the bag. Navy - Can we start another 6 decade streak? I think it is money in the bag. We should walk all over Syracuse at home - why do these guys still have a football team? And finally, the Trojans. While I want to believe ND has returned to the level of greatness other programs are at, I just don't see it yet. I think we are another year or two from being able to compete with these guys, especially out West. The running game will be the key to proving me wrong and paving the way to the national championship though. Sticking around in the game early and increasing everyone's confidence would be a huge advantage for us due to the recent beat downs and could make anything happen. The power running and ball control plan of three years ago must be done to perfection to seal the deal this year.
after last year, who knows...
San Diego State - W
Michigan - L
Michigan State - L
Purdue - W
Stanford - W
North Carolina - W
Washington - W
Pittsburgh - W
Boston College - L
Navy - W
Syracus - W
USC - L
I'm thinking about 7-5
San Diego State - W
Michigan - L
Michigan State - L
Purdue - W
Stanford - W
North Carolina - L
Washington - W
Pittsburgh - W
Boston College - L
Navy - W
Syracus - W
USC - L
Season Prediction:
San Diego State-W
Michigan-L
Michigan State-L
Purdue-W
Stanford-W
North Carolina-L
Washington-L
Pittsburgh-L
Boston College-L
Navy-W
Syracuse-W
USC-L
Overall, 5-7. I'd consider a 6-6 a good season. I know this is heresy coming from a new ND fan, but it's honest. I hope they prove me wrong.
These are my honest predictions on the upcoming ND season with absolutely no OSU bias.
W S06 SAN DIEGO STATE:
This is not a complete walk in the park but ND's defense should be able to score enough to win this game.
W S13 MICHIGAN:
No quarterback, offensive line, or wide receivers along with significant loses on defense spells an ND win.
L S20 @ Michigan St.
I know the road team usually wins this game but MSU is on the rise and should be able to end the ND perfect season
W S27 PURDUE:
Tiller is on his way out and did not bring in a strong freshman class, ND wins a tight one.
W O04 STANFORD:
ND wins this easily at home.
L O11 @ North Carolina:
Butch Davis starts turning things around with a big UNC win.
L O25 @ Washington:
Washington had a young offense last year that will put up a bunch of points this. The defense will also be strong enough to hold the ND offense in check as Ty gets a little revenge.
W N01 PITTSBURGH:
Not sure about this but will give the edge to the home team.
L N08 @ Boston College
Still more talent top to bottom in Chestnut Hill.
W N15 @ Navy (Baltimore)
Your just lucky Paul Johnson headed to Georgia Tech.
W N22 SYRACUSE:
This isn't basketball, oh wait a sec they are not very good at that sport either anymore.
L N29 @ Southern Cal:
Could get ugly quick.
Overall: 7-5 +/- 1 game
San Diego State - Win
Michigan - Win
Michigan State - Loss
Purdue - Win
Stanford - Win
North Carolina - Win
Washington - Win
Pittsburgh - Win
Boston College - Win
Navy - Win
Syracuse - Win
USC - Loss
BCS Bowl
Sugar vs. LSU or Florida - Loss
or
Orange vs. Miami or FSU - Win
So 10-3 or 11-2!
I honestly think Purdue is a tossup. If they lose there I think they beat USC in a huge Upset!
THE GENIUS RETURNS!
And whoever said BC has more talent than Notre Dame is nuts! I hope that was just a poor attempt at humor!
*Geaux Tigers*
2003 & 2007 BCS Champs!
9 Wins:
9/06 San Diego State - W or else
9/13 Michigan - W I smell blood
9/20 @ Michigan State - L, ND is rebounding from Michigan & MS has basically had back to back scrimmages
9/27 Purdue - W
10/04 Stanford - W or else
10/11 @ North Carolina - W
10/25 @ Washington - L, UW's QB averaged 5.7 ypc last year & ND doesn't have the speed on defense to stop this guy
11/01 Pittsburgh - W
11/08 @ Boston College - W
11/15 @ Navy - W or else
11/22 Syracuse - W or else
11/29 @ USC - L&W? scoreboard will say USC wins but it's still possible to win via forfeit if the NCAA finds any more dirt on current players after the season.
SAN DIEGO STATE - Win
MICHIGAN - Win
@ Michigan St - Win
PURDUE - Loss
STANFORD - Win
@ North Carolina - Loss
@ Washington - Win
PITTSBURGH - Win
@ Boston College - Loss
@ Navy (Baltimore) - Win
SYRACUSE - Win
@ Southern Cal - Loss
San Diego State Win (They are among the teams with the fewest returning starters plus we have more talent)
Michigan Win (Not sure about this one because they have a very talented defense. If we run alot and run it a little better than our 3.9 yds/carry in last years game, we can win because thier offense is going to suck)
Michigan State Loss (I believe our D-Line will have trouble with Ringer running the ball)
Purdue Win (They lost alot to graduation except a very good QB. We have more talent and should win.)
Stanford Win (We beat them last year and they lost more to graduation.)
North Carolina Win (This should be a great game. Both teams are young and talented. We lost three good players to the draft but they had a DT that went in the 1st round.)
Washington Win (They have so little talent other than Locker. But on the other hand they did play tough against USC and beat Stanford by more than we did.)
Pittsburg Loss (McCoy is a stud. I believe our D-Line will struggle stopping his running.)
Boston College Win (They lost so much. We need to trounce these guys ... not just win ... trounce)
Navy Win (Kick the #$%@* fieldgoal!)
Syracuse Win (They had as bad a season as us and they haven't had the recruiting success to come outof it)
USC Loss (They lost a ton of talent but they are so stinking talented)
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